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Dr. Dawn Adams wins District 68 Democratic Primary for Virginia House of Delegates.

Dr. Dawn Adams wins District 68 Democratic Primary for Virginia House of Delegates.

Dr. Dawn Adams bested two other candidates in the Democratic Primary for the District 68 seat in the Virginia House of Delegates race. The seat is currently held by Republican Manoli Loupassi. This seat was challenged by a Democrat and an Independent in the last cycle. In the last cycle, Loupassi won by a daunting 6,298 vote margin out of 25,616 cast. 

CONNECT WITH DAWN ADAM'S CAMPAIGN:

DISTRICT 68 FAST FACTS

  • Residents = 80,010
  • Active Registered Voters = 56,766
  • Percent Registered = 71%
  • Total Vote in Last Race = 25,616
  • Participation Rate = 45%
  • Total Vote for Republican last Race = 15,715
  • Total Vote for Democrat last Race = 9,417
  • Total Vote for Independent last Race = 484
  • Localities = Chesterfield & Henrico Counties and Richmond City

There is a total of 26 precincts in District 68. There are 10 in Chesterfield County, 3 in Henrico County, and 13 in Richmond City. This district will be tough. While 45% participation seems low, it is remarkably high for off-year elections like these. That vote margin also proves a little daunting as well. All that said, let's look at some data to see where opportunities may lie.

Here is the share of Active Voters by Locality:

Just looking at the pie chart it is not obvious where you would want to begin, so let's turn our attention to by precinct information.

Here is chart showing the Partisan Vote Share by Precinct. The letter at the beginning of the precinct names represent the locality the precinct is in, Chesterfield County, Henrico County or Richmond City

Carefully looking over this chart reveals particularly strong support in Chesterfield County for the Republican and actually decent support for the Republican even in Richmond City. This will be a tough nut to crack, but this chart tells me the approach may be counter intuitive to some. The largest volume of people who did not vote actually appear in the Chesterfield County precincts, so while some of the Republican top vote totals come from there, the volume of people not voting is higher too, which is where this race will be won, getting people not typically engaged to chose a different direction. Of course a deeper data dive is needed.

The next chart shows the margin of victory in the various precincts. This one definitely gives us some idea of the precincts that make up our battleground areas in this race.

This margin data actually shows there is actually a mix of closely contested precincts across the localities. All 3 precincts from Henrico County fall within the 11 precincts decided by around 200 votes or less. 6 from Richmond City and 3 even from Chesterfield County.

The final scatter plot reveals a very dynamic race. I would target the Republican precincts that fall below the red line and look for support from the precincts where the Democratic vote totals are above the blue line.

District 68 will be a heavy lift for any Democrat seeking this seat. It is vitally important to rally around Dr. Adam's campaign and help her compete for this seat. If we can take down a well entrenched Republican like is found in this district that will send shockwaves around the country.

Here are more reasons why we should support the full slate of candidates.

The best way, for a political party, to connect with voters is to ask for their vote. Last cycle, Democrats did not contest 44 out 100 House of Delegates seat in Virginia. Those 44 seats represent roughly 3,520,000 Virginians. It does not matter your view on the issues, if a party does not run candidates in your district, it is less likely you will support that party consistently. If Democrats do not ask for these votes, the message to Virginians living in these mostly rural districts is the Democratic Party is not interested in their concerns.

This issue is not unique to Virginia either. In the last cycle,  Democrats did not compete in 1,479 state legislative races nationwide. The districts we did not compete in represent more that 117,000,000 people. We often ask how people in "red America" can so consistently vote against their interests.

They are not voting against their interests at all; they are simply voting for those showing an interest in them.

As noted above, it is of critical importance we try to field candidates in as many districts as possible. If you can run, please do. These state legislative races are vital to our Democracy. They are the most local seats with enumerated powers in our Constitution. The power to change our Constitution rests in the state legislatures hands, and Republicans only need 24 more seats to control the number of states they need to do just that.

Virginia is leading the way. They are doing well contesting 88 of 100 districts this cycle. That said, if we want to start to bridge the rural and urban divide, if we want to represent all people across the state, heck across the nation, we need to step up and support the full slate of Democrats running this cycle, tough district or not. Let's work together to support Democrats across the map in Virginia like Dawn. Let's support the Full Slate TM.

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