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Former refugee Kathy Tran wins District 42 Democratic primary for the Virginia House of Delegates race.

Former refugee Kathy Tran wins District 42 Democratic primary for the Virginia House of Delegates race.

Kathy Tran won the Democratic party nomination on June 13, 2017 in the primary for the Virginia House of Delegates District 42 race. The seat is currently held by Republican Dave Albo. This seat was challenged by a Democrat in the last cycle. In that last cycle Albo won by a  4,592 vote margin out of 17,082 cast. 

CONNECT WITH KATHY TRAN'S CAMPAIGN:

DISTRICT 42 FAST FACTS

  • Residents = 80,010
  • Active Registered Voters = 50,877
  • Percent Registered = 64%
  • Total Vote in Last Race = 17,082
  • Participation Rate = 34%
  • Total Vote for Republican last Race = 10,837
  • Total Vote for Democrat last Race = 6,245
  • Localities = Fairfax County

There is a total of 17 precincts in District 42 all in Fairfax County. This district is unique in all of the contested districts I have reviewed so far in that the Republican won every single precinct last cycle. It is still worth digging into the data to see where opportunities may lie in the upcoming campaign.

Here is a chart showing the Partisan Vote Share by Precinct:

Just glancing at the above chart I would definitely begin looking into the precincts with a large number of people who did not vote last cycle. Newington, Laurelhill, Westgate, Fountainhead and Orange. Some of these favored the Republican heavily, but the volume of people not voting suggests opportunity in these areas.

The next chart shows the margin of victory in the various precincts.

As noted above, the Republican enjoyed an across the board victory in the last cycle. Not only that but he won with significant margins in almost all of the precincts. That means there is opportunity across the board. Any progress anywhere could yield very positive results in this district.

The final scatter plot simply reinforces the above findings.  The Republican won a sweeping victory across the board. Fundamentally, I would target the Republican precincts that fall below the red line and look for support from the precincts where the Democratic vote totals are above the blue line. Although, given the scope of the Republican victory any progress anywhere will pay dividends.

District 42 will be a heavy lift for any Democrat seeking this seat. That said, there is plenty of weaknesses to be exploited. At a minimum, running here will allow us to move the ball forward in the district. This is why we need to rally behind Kathy and support her campaign, to exploit what opportunity can be found here and potentially win this tough seat!!

Here are more reasons why we should support the full slate of candidates.

The best way, for a political party, to connect with voters is to ask for their vote. Last cycle, Democrats did not contest 44 out 100 House of Delegates seat in Virginia. Those 44 seats represent roughly 3,520,000 Virginians. It does not matter your view on the issues, if a party does not run candidates in your district, it is less likely you will support that party consistently. If Democrats do not ask for these votes, the message to Virginians living in these mostly rural districts is the Democratic Party is not interested in their concerns.

This issue is not unique to Virginia either. In the last cycle,  Democrats did not compete in 1,479 state legislative races nationwide. The districts we did not compete in represent more that 117,000,000 people. We often ask how people in "red America" can so consistently vote against their interests.

They are not voting against their interests at all; they are simply voting for those showing an interest in them.

As noted above, it is of critical importance we try to field candidates in as many districts as possible. If you can run, please do. These state legislative races are vital to our Democracy. They are the most local seats with enumerated powers in our Constitution. The power to change our Constitution rests in the state legislatures hands, and Republicans only need 24 more seats to control the number of states they need to do just that.

Virginia is leading the way. They are doing well contesting 88 of 100 districts this cycle. That said, if we want to start to bridge the rural and urban divide, if we want to represent all people across the state, heck across the nation, we need to step up and support the full slate of Democrats running this cycle, tough district or not. Let's work together to support Democrats across the map in Virginia like Kathy. Let's support the Full Slate TM.

 

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