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Airforce veteran Rebecca Colaw wins District 64 Democratic primary for the Virginia House of Delegates race.

Airforce veteran Rebecca Colaw wins District 64 Democratic primary for the Virginia House of Delegates race.

Rebecca Colaw won a primary against 2 others to secure the District 64 nomination to represent Democrats on the ballot in this fall's Virginia House of Delegates election. The seat is currently held by Republican Rick Morris. He is not running this cycle even though he ran uncontested last cycle. Rebecca's opponent will be Emily Brewer. In 2015 Morris drew 15,208 votes in that uncontested race. This seat is wide open this year. Should be a fun race to follow.

CONNECT WITH REBECCA COLAW'S CAMPAIGN:

DISTRICT 64 FAST FACTS

  • Residents = 80,010
  • Active Registered Voters = 54,184
  • Percent Registered = 68%
  • Total Vote in Last Race = 15,208
  • Participation Rate = 28%
  • Total Vote for Republican last Race = 15,208
  • Total Vote for Democrat last Race = 0
  • Localities = Isle of Wight, Prince George, Southampton, Surry and Sussex Counties as well as Franklin and Suffolk Cities

This district includes a whole variety of localities. Isle of Wight County has the most precincts with 14 followed in descending order by Prince George County with 9, Surry County with 6, Southampton County with 5, Sussex County with 4 and Franklin and Suffolk Cities each with 3. Voter registration appears to be high, so the distribution of Active Voters across the precincts will be pretty stable.

Here is the share of Active Voters by Locality:

While there are a lot of localities included in this district most of the energy should obviously be spent on Isle of Wight and Prince George Counties. You don't want to ignore the other areas, it is just those two should form your priority as a candidate.

This next chart shows republican vote share compared to those that did not vote by locality.

This chart simply reinforces where most of the opportunity lies, Isle of Wight and Prince George Counties. This does reveal that there is some small gains to be made in Suffolk City as well.

Here is a chart showing the vote share of active voters by precinct. The initial at the beginning of each precinct name indicates the locality the precinct is in, (I) Isle of Wight, (P) Prince George, (S) Southampton, (SU) Surry, (SX) Sussex, (F) Franklin and (SK) Suffolk.

Breaking it down by precinct is somewhat revealing. Definitely want to spend some time in Holland precinct in Suffolk City as well as Blano and Templeton in Prince George County and most of Isle of Wight. This gives a good basis for targeting by opportunity for sure.

The final scatter plot shows actual vote totals versus the Active Registered Voter total per precinct. The weakest support for the Republican will be the precincts below the red line. These precincts would form a good starting point for building support for any Democratic campaign in this district.

District 64 will be a heavy lift for any Democrat seeking this seat. That said, there is plenty of weaknesses to be exploited. At a minimum, running here will allow us to move the ball forward in the district. This is why we need to rally behind Rebecca and support her campaign, to exploit what opportunity can be found here and potentially win this tough seat!!

Here are more reasons why we should support the full slate of candidates.

The best way, for a political party, to connect with voters is to ask for their vote. Last cycle, Democrats did not contest 44 out 100 House of Delegates seat in Virginia. Those 44 seats represent roughly 3,520,000 Virginians. It does not matter your view on the issues, if a party does not run candidates in your district, it is less likely you will support that party consistently. If Democrats do not ask for these votes, the message to Virginians living in these mostly rural districts is the Democratic Party is not interested in their concerns.

This issue is not unique to Virginia either. In the last cycle,  Democrats did not compete in 1,479 state legislative races nationwide. The districts we did not compete in represent more that 117,000,000 people. We often ask how people in "red America" can so consistently vote against their interests.

They are not voting against their interests at all; they are simply voting for those showing an interest in them.

As noted above, it is of critical importance we try to field candidates in as many districts as possible. If you can run, please do. These state legislative races are vital to our Democracy. They are the most local seats with enumerated powers in our Constitution. The power to change our Constitution rests in the state legislatures hands, and Republicans only need 24 more seats to control the number of states they need to do just that.

Virginia is leading the way. They are doing well contesting 88 of 100 districts this cycle. That said, if we want to start to bridge the rural and urban divide, if we want to represent all people across the state, heck across the nation, we need to step up and support the full slate of Democrats running this cycle, tough district or not. Let's work together to support Democrats across the map in Virginia like Rebecca. Let's support the Full Slate TM.

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