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Elizabeth Guzman wins District 31 Democratic primary in Virginia House of Delegates campaign.

Elizabeth Guzman wins District 31 Democratic primary in Virginia House of Delegates campaign.

Elizabeth Guzman wins District 31 Democratic Primary for the Virginia House of Delegates campaign. The seat is currently held by Republican Scott Lingamfelter. A brisk primary appears to be the order of the day in this district. One of the 3 candidates this cycle did challenge Lingamfelter in 2015. The Democrat's campaign fell short by only 1,219 votes out of 17,793 in the last campaign.

CONNECT WITH ELIZABETH GUZMAN'S CAMPAIGN:

District 31 Fast Facts

  • Residents = 80,010
  • Active Registered Voters = 50,688
  • Percent Registered = 63%
  • Total Vote in Last District 31 Race = 17,793
  • Participation Rate = 35%
  • Total Vote for Republican last Race = 9,506
  • Total Vote for Democrat last Race = 8,287
  • Localities = Fauquier and Prince William Counties

Fauquier County consists of 5 precincts while Prince William County consists of 19 precincts. The Democrat won 12 precincts while the Republican won 11 precincts and the absentee and provisional ballots. They actually tied in one precinct. The Democratic candidate won no precincts in Fauquier County.

Partisan vote share of Active Voters:

This was a close race in 2015. There are any number of paths to victory but looking at the above graph it is obvious that the Democrat needs to focus on Prince William County. Although, with a margin so narrow, ignoring Fauquier County would be foolish.

Here is a plot of the Republican vote totals in the precincts. The dots below the line would be precincts to seriously review first, that means they underperform the average performance for the Republican last race:

The next scatter plot is the Democratic vote in the precincts in the last cycle compared to total Active Voters. The dots above the line might be worked early by the campaign to secure volunteers and donations with a long-term plan to reach out to districts that fall under the line.

District 31 is ripe for the picking if we all get behind Elizabeth and support her campaign. Opportunity abounds in this district for us to score a big victory this fall.

Here are reasons why we should support the full slate of candidates in Virginia.

The best way, for a political party, to connect with voters is to ask for their vote. Last cycle, Democrats did not contest 44 out 100 House of Delegates seat in Virginia. Those 44 seats represent roughly 3,520,000 Virginians. It does not matter your view on the issues, if a party does not run candidates in your district, it is less likely you will support that party consistently. If Democrats do not ask for these votes, the message to Virginians living in these mostly rural districts is the Democratic Party is not interested in their concerns.

This issue is not unique to Virginia either. In the last cycle,  Democrats did not compete in 1,479 state legislative races nationwide. The districts we did not compete in represent more that 117,000,000 people. We often ask how people in "red America" can so consistently vote against their interests.

They are not voting against their interests at all; they are simply voting for those showing an interest in them.

As noted above, it is of critical importance we try to field candidates in as many districts as possible. If you can run, please do. These state legislative races are vital to our Democracy. They are the most local seats with enumerated powers in our Constitution. The power to change our Constitution rests in the state legislatures hands, and Republicans only need 24 more seats to control the number of states they need to do just that.

Virginia is leading the way. They are doing well contesting 88 of 100 districts this cycle. That said, if we want to start to bridge the rural and urban divide, if we want to represent all people across the state, heck across the nation, we need to step up and support the full slate of Democrats running this cycle, tough district or not. Let's work together to support Democrats across the map in Virginia like Elizabeth. Let's support the Full Slate TM.

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