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Kelly Fowler wins District 21 Democratic primary for Virginia House of Delegates campaign.

Kelly Fowler wins District 21 Democratic primary for Virginia House of Delegates campaign.

Kelly Fowler won her primary to represent the Democrats in the District 21 Virginia House of Delegates race this fall. The seat is currently held by Republican Ron Villanueva. This seat was challenged by a Democrat in the last cycle, however, the 2 declared Democrats appear to be first-time candidates. Villanueva won this seat by a margin of 1,533 votes out of only 11,157 cast.

CONNECT WITH KELLY FOWLER'S CAMPAIGN:

District 21 Fast Facts

  • Residents = 80,010
  • Active Registered Voters = 50,755
  • Percent Registered = 63%
  • Total Vote in Last District 21 Race = 17,793
  • Participation Rate = 22%
  • Total Vote for Republican last Race = 6,345
  • Total Vote for Democrat last Race = 4,812
  • Localities = Chesapeake City and Virginia Beach City

The precinct count is a little furry, I am relying on two public sources to create the data and they do not match. My best guess is there are 3 Chesapeake City precincts and 15 Virginia Beach City precincts but don't hold me to that.In any case, this district is clearly centered in Virginia Beach City.

Here is the partisan vote share of Active Voters:

This race is really wide open frankly. 22% participation is pretty bad, so there is a lot of opportunities. Villanueva has happened to draw a primary challenger on the Republican side. A very dynamic season for Virginia Beach.

Here is a plot of the Republican vote totals in the precincts. Frankly, these are soft numbers across the board. That said, the dots below the line would be precincts to seriously review first, that means they underperform the average performance for the Republican last race:

The next scatter plot is the Democratic vote in the precincts in the last cycle compared to total Active Voters. Again, this is incredibly weak performance across the board. The dots above the line might be worked early by the campaign to secure volunteers and donations with a long-term plan to reach out to districts that fall under the line.

District 21 is ripe for the picking if we all get behind Kelly and support her campaign. Opportunity abounds in this district for us to score a big victory this fall.

Here are reasons why we should support the full slate of candidates in Virginia.

The best way, for a political party, to connect with voters is to ask for their vote. Last cycle, Democrats did not contest 44 out 100 House of Delegates seat in Virginia. Those 44 seats represent roughly 3,520,000 Virginians. It does not matter your view on the issues, if a party does not run candidates in your district, it is less likely you will support that party consistently. If Democrats do not ask for these votes, the message to Virginians living in these mostly rural districts is the Democratic Party is not interested in their concerns.

This issue is not unique to Virginia either. In the last cycle,  Democrats did not compete in 1,479 state legislative races nationwide. The districts we did not compete in represent more that 117,000,000 people. We often ask how people in "red America" can so consistently vote against their interests.

They are not voting against their interests at all; they are simply voting for those showing an interest in them.

As noted above, it is of critical importance we try to field candidates in as many districts as possible. If you can run, please do. These state legislative races are vital to our Democracy. They are the most local seats with enumerated powers in our Constitution. The power to change our Constitution rests in the state legislatures hands, and Republicans only need 24 more seats to control the number of states they need to do just that.

Virginia is leading the way. They are doing well contesting 88 of 100 districts this cycle. That said, if we want to start to bridge the rural and urban divide, if we want to represent all people across the state, heck across the nation, we need to step up and support the full slate of Democrats running this cycle, tough district or not. Let's work together to support Democrats across the map in Virginia like Kelly. Let's support the Full Slate TM.

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