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Debra Rodman wins District 73 Democratic convention for Virginia House for Delegates seat - District Profile

Debra Rodman wins District 73 Democratic convention for Virginia House for Delegates seat - District Profile

District 73 was being contested by four Democratic candidates this cycle. Debra Rodman won a local Democratic convention to secure the nomination. The seat is currently held by Republican John O'Bannon. he ran uncontested last cycle. In 2015 O'Bannon drew 12,514 votes in that uncontested race. It was exciting to see so many people challenge for this seat this cycle, now let's support our Democratic candidate this fall!

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DISTRICT 73 FAST FACTS

  • Residents = 80,010
  • Active Registered Voters = 47,657
  • Percent Registered = 60%
  • Total Vote in Last Race = 13,514
  • Participation Rate = 28%
  • Total Vote for Republican last Race = 12,514
  • Total Vote for Democrat last Race = 0
  • Total Vote Other = 760
  • Localities = Henrico County

A very straight forward district in terms of locality. District 73 is comprised of 22 precincts all contained within the Henrico County Locality. There are quite a few precincts that represent a significant opportunity in this district. Let's take a look at the Active Registered Voters to get a clearer picture where the best chance to beat this Republican.

Here is the share of Active Voters by Precinct:

Well, there 3 precincts that jump out at me here, Hungary Creek, Staples Mill and Tuckahoe. Just the volume of active registered voters is a good sign of opportunity. This bar graph however is not definitive. Let's dig a little deeper.

This next chart shows republican vote share compared to those that did not vote by precinct.

This chart reinforces the importance of Hungary Creek and Staples Mill but reveals two precincts that look to present more opportunity than Tuckahoe does. Tucker and Pinch Beck both appear to have as many or more people that did not vote as in Tuchaho. The real advantage they have, in terms of priorities, is they do show less support for the Republican candidate. Of course you would want to spend time everywhere, this just helps set up priorities.

The final scatter plot shows actual vote totals versus the Active Registered Voter total per precinct. The weakest support for the Republican will be the precincts below the red line. The two precincts furthest from the red line represent real weak support for the Republican. These precincts would form a good starting point for building support for any Democratic campaign in this district.

This is analysis I can do for your campaign simply based on publicly available data. If you work with me I can help you really zero on down to address by address data once I get a hold of your voter file to analyze.

You can request a file from ELECT office by contacting Vanessa Archie at vanessa.archie@elections.virginia.gov or at (804) 864-8908. Ask what it would take to obtain the Vote History List for District 73, let her know you are a candidate or a member of the campaign.

Support the Democratic candidate and if you are a candidate or working on a campaign check out my The Solution page on this website to see how I can help your campaign.

Let's Turn Virginia Blue in 2017. If you do not have a candidate running in your district. Run, let me help!

Bill ColemanDebra RodmanChelsea SavageSarah SmithHouse of DelegatesCandidatesDemocratsHenrico County

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