Democrat Ben Hixon wins Democratic convention in District 30 Virginia House of Delegates Race - District Profile
Two Democratic candidates are challenging for the District 30 seat for the first time since 2013. Ben Hixon won a Democratic Convention over Annette Hyde to represent the party this fall. Republican Nick Freitas currently holds this district. Freitas was able to secure 13,563 in this uncontested district the last cycle.
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DISTRICT 30 FAST FACTS
Residents = 80,010
Active Registered Voters = 47,356
Percent Registered = 59%
Total Vote in Last Race = 13,854
Participation Rate = 29%
Total Vote for Republican = 13,563
Total Vote for Democrat = 0
Total Vote Other = 291
Localities = Culpeper, Madison and Orange Counties
District 30 is made up of 31 precincts with 12 in Culpeper County, 10 in Orange County, and 9 in Madison County. The interesting thing about this district is that the Republican tally is pretty stable no matter condition. Over the last 5 campaigns, the vote total the Republican caught ranged from this 13,500 total to 15,000. It did not matter if there was a Democrat on the ballot or if it was a gubernatorial year or not. The nice thing about that is that it gives you a solid number to hit to secure a victory in this district. You usually do not see such stable numbers given the varied circumstances from race to race.
Let's take a turn to some charts.
Here is the share of Active Voters by Locality:
While the precinct count is fairly even across all 3 localities in District 30, it is pretty clear most of the active voters are in Orange and Culpeper Counties. That said, there is a significant number of folks in Culpeper too.
This next chart shows partisan vote share of total active voters per locality.
The bar graph shows pretty level participation rates across all localities in the district. That means there is no weak point in one area over another looking at the data at this level. I mean, a 25% participation rate overall means there are weaknesses to exploit everywhere, but this chart does not highlight a particular weak point to focus on over another. Orange County does have the largest number of non-voters though, making it a prime target.
The next bar graph breaks it down precinct by precinct. The initial at the beginning of the precinct name is the locality for the precinct. C = Culpeper, M = Madison and O = Orange.
It is when you start looking precinct by precinct that areas to target become apparent. The two Fairfax precincts in Culpeper County, for example, have a lot of non-voters in them. That is a sign that they may not be satisfied with the incumbent. The broader zone to target is in Orange County.
The final scatter plot shows actual vote totals versus the Active Registered Voter total per precinct. The weakest support for the Republican will be the precincts below the red line. The range is pretty stable for the Republican, but there are a few precincts below the line worth a second look for sure.
This review is analysis solely based on publicly available data. If you work with me, I can help you zero on down to address by address data once I get a hold of your voter file to analyze.
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