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Democrat Larry Barnett Runs for Virginia House of Delegates Seat 27 in Chesterfield County - Data Snapshot

Democrat Larry Barnett Runs for Virginia House of Delegates Seat 27 in Chesterfield County - Data Snapshot

District 27 is being contested by a Democratic candidate this cycle. The seat is currently held by Republican Roxann Robinson. This seat was challenged by a Democrat in the last cycle. In that race Hugo won by a 3,014 vote margin out of just 17,600 cast. This looks like a challenging district, but the numbers below show some real opportunity here.

THE ANNOUNCED CANDIDATE IS LARRY BARNETT:

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DISTRICT 27 FAST FACTS:

  • Residents = 80,010
  • Active Registered Voters = 50,536
  • Percent Registered = 63%
  • Total Vote in Last Race = 17,600
  • Participation Rate = 35%
  • Total Vote for Republican last Race = 10,307
  • Total Vote for Democrat last Race = 7,293
  • Localities = Chesterfield County

There are a total of 21 precincts in District 27 all within Chesterfield County. The Democrat in the last race only won 4 of those precincts, although there were many with only narrow victories for the Republican. All of the data charts below focus on precinct level detail.

Here is the Partisan Vote Share by Precinct:

Looking at the above chart shows that, while the Republican enjoyed stronger support across the board, 3 of the top 5 precincts in terms of total vote for the Republican also have the largest number of active registered voters that did not vote for either candidate. That would indicate there is some level of opportunity in those precincts.

Here is a chart showing the Margin of Victory per Precinct:

So I set the chart to put Republican on the positive side of the ledger so we can clearly see where the lowest margins were. Targeting South Manchester through St Luke's precincts would be an early priority to at least look at. Particularly when cross referenced by what we find in the scatterplot coming up.

The final scatterplot shows actual vote totals for Republicans and Democrats compared to total registered active voters in the district. It becomes very clear there is work to do across the board. The precincts that deserve the first look are those that fall below the red line for the Republican and above the blue line for the Democrat. Those precincts represent some level of softer support for the Republican and represent a potential source of volunteers and more active support for the Democrat.

This is analysis I can do for your campaign simply based on publicly available data. If you work with me I can help you really zero on down to address by address data once I get a hold of your voter file to analyze.

You can request a file from ELECT office by contacting Vanessa Archie at vanessa.archie@elections.virginia.gov or at (804) 864-8908. Ask what it would take to obtain the Vote History List for District 27, let her know you are a candidate or a member of the campaign.

Support the Democratic candidate and if you are a candidate or working on a campaign check out my The Solution page on this website to see how I can help your campaign.

Let's Turn Virginia Blue in 2017. If you do not have a candidate running in your district. Run, let me help!

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