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Donte Tanner Competes for District 40 Virginia House of Delegates Seat - Data Snapshot

Donte Tanner Competes for District 40 Virginia House of Delegates Seat - Data Snapshot

District 40 is being contested by a Democratic candidate this cycle. The seat is currently held by Republican Tim Hugo. This seat was challenged by a Democrat in the last cycle. In that race Hugo won by a huge 5,094 vote margin out of just 16,656 cast. That is a tough margin to overcome, but it can be overcome if we work at it.

THE ANNOUNCED CANDIDATE IS DONTE TANNER:

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DISTRICT 40 FAST FACTS:

  • Residents = 80,010
  • Active Registered Voters = 53,284
  • Percent Registered = 67%
  • Total Vote in Last Race = 16,656
  • Participation Rate = 31%
  • Total Vote for Republican last Race = 10,875
  • Total Vote for Democrat last Race = 5,781
  • Localities = Prince William and Fairfax Counties

There is a total of 22 precincts in District 40. Prince William County has 5 precincts Fairfax County has 17 . Voter registration very high in this district considering the low rates in districts around the area. Fairfax County is clearly where the opportunity in this district lies.

Here is the share of Active Voters by Locality:

Here is chart showing the partisan vote share of active voters by locality. This race frankly will come down to gaining traction in Fairfax County.

The final scatterplot shows actual vote totals for Republicans and Democrats compared to total registered active voters in the district. It becomes very clear there is work to do across the board. The precincts that deserve the first look are those that fall below the red line for the Republican and above the blue line for the Democrat. Those precincts represent some level of softer support for the Republican and represent a potential source of volunteers and more active support for the Democrat.

This is analysis I can do for your campaign simply based on publicly available data. If you work with me I can help you really zero on down to address by address data once I get a hold of your voter file to analyze.

You can request a file from ELECT office by contacting Vanessa Archie at vanessa.archie@elections.virginia.gov or at (804) 864-8908. Ask what it would take to obtain the Vote History List for District 40, let her know you are a candidate or a member of the campaign.

Support the Democratic candidate and if you are a candidate or working on a campaign check out my The Solution page on this website to see how I can help your campaign.

Let's Turn Virginia Blue in 2017. If you do not have a candidate running in your district. Run, let me help!

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