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Democrats Francis Edwards & Vivian Messner Run for District 99 Virginia House of Delegates Seat - Data Snapshot

Democrats Francis Edwards & Vivian Messner Run for District 99 Virginia House of Delegates Seat - Data Snapshot

2 Democratic candidates are competing to represent District 99 this cycle. The seat is currently held by Republican Margaret Ransone. This seat was not challenged by a Democrat in the last cycle. The last time it was challenged by a Democrat was in 2011 when Ransone won by a daunting 7,976 vote margin out of 20,694 cast. Ransone is one of a few candidates not to have a challenger that has actually grown her support compared to her last contested race.

The announced candidates are Francis Edwards and Vivian Messner:

DISTRICT 99 FAST FACTS

  • Residents = 80,010
  • Active Registered Voters = 50,291
  • Percent Registered = 63%
  • Total Vote in Last Race = 16,861
  • Participation Rate = 34%
  • Total Vote for Republican last Race = 16,861
  • Total Vote for Democrat last Race = 0
  • Localities = Caroline, King George, Lancaster, Northumberland, Richmond and Westmoreland Counties

There is a total of 32 precincts in District 99. 4 in Caroline County, 5 in King George County, 6 in Lancaster County, 6 in Northumberland County, 5 in Richmond County and 6 in Westmoreland County.

Here is the share of Active Voters by Locality:

Just looking at the pie chart it is hard to discern where you might want to focus first, although King George is likely a good spot.

Here is chart showing the Republican vote share of active voters by locality. The Republican vote share per precinct indicates King George and Westmoreland Counties are the area of weakest support for the Republican. That said, you need to compete everywhere in this district to have any hope of pulling out a victory.

The final scatterplot shows actual vote totals for Republican compared to total registered active voters in the district. It becomes very clear there is work to do across the board. The precincts that deserve the first look are those that fall below the line and to the right. they show soft support for the Republican. the 3 precincts with around 2,000 active voters where there were less than 600 votes cast.

This is analysis I can do for your campaign simply based on publicly available data. If you work with me I can help you really zero on down to address by address data once I get a hold of your voter file to analyze.

You can request a file from ELECT office by contacting Vanessa Archie at vanessa.archie@elections.virginia.gov or at (804) 864-8908. Ask what it would take to obtain the Vote History List for District 99, let her know you are a candidate or a member of the campaign.

Support the Democratic candidate and if you are a candidate or working on a campaign check out my The Solution page on this website to see how I can help your campaign.

Let's Turn Virginia Blue in 2017. If you do not have a candidate running in your district. Run, let me help!

Mid-Pen Democrats seek challenger in 98th district from the Daily Press

Mid-Pen Democrats seek challenger in 98th district from the Daily Press

For Virginia Podcast

For Virginia Podcast