Democrat Lee Jin Carter Challenges for District 50 Virginia House of Delegates Seat - Data Snaphot
District 50 is being contested by a Democratic candidate this cycle. The seat is currently held by Republican Jackson Miller. This seat was challenged by a Democrat in the last cycle. In that race Miller won by just a 2,336 vote margin out of 13,304 cast. While a comfortable margin for that number of votes, that gap is definitely one that can be readliy closed.
THE ANNOUNCED CANDIDATE IS LEE JIN CARTER:
DISTRICT 50 FAST FACTS
- Residents = 80,010
- Active Registered Voters = 40,134
- Percent Registered = 50%
- Total Vote in Last Race = 13,304
- Participation Rate = 33%
- Total Vote for Republican last Race = 7,820
- Total Vote for Democrat last Race = 5,484
- Localities = Prince William County and Manassas City
There is a total of 13 precincts in District 50. Prince William County has 8 precincts and 5 in Manassas City. Voter registration seems low in this district. That said, it is my understanding that there are a lot of foreign nationals in the region that might drive that percentage down. That said, it is worth considering looking at registration drives as a tactic with this race.
Here is the share of Active Voters by Locality:
Both localities present opportunity.
Here is chart showing the partisan vote share of active voters by locality. This race frankly will be a hard fought race across both localities that comprise this district. Neither part is particularly weak or particilarly strong judging by the data in the chart that follows.
The final scatterplot shows actual vote totals for Republicans and Democrats compared to total registered active voters in the district. It becomes very clear there is work to do across the board. The precincts that deserve the first look are those that fall below the red line for the Republican and above the blue line for the Democrat. Those precincts represent some level of softer support for the Republican and represent a potential source of volunteers and more active support for the Democrat.
This is analysis I can do for your campaign simply based on publicly available data. If you work with me I can help you really zero on down to address by address data once I get a hold of your voter file to analyze.
You can request a file from ELECT office by contacting Vanessa Archie at firstname.lastname@example.org or at (804) 864-8908. Ask what it would take to obtain the Vote History List for District 50, let her know you are a candidate or a member of the campaign.
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