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Natalie Short stands tall, challenges for District 23 Virginia House of Delegates Seat - Data Snapshot

Natalie Short stands tall, challenges for District 23 Virginia House of Delegates Seat - Data Snapshot

District 23 is being contested by a Democratic candidate this cycle. The seat is currently held by Republican Scott Garrett. This seat was not challenged by a Democrat in the last cycle, although there was an independent challenger. The last time it was challenged by a Democrat was in 2013 when Garrett won by a daunting 12,022 vote margin out of 22,138 cast. That said, that last cycle saw a 15,000 voter drop in participation, so there is an opportunity here.

THE ANNOUNCED CANDIDATE IS NATALIE SHORT:

DISTRICT 23 FAST FACTS

  • Residents = 80,010
  • Active Registered Voters = 49,704
  • Percent Registered = 62%
  • Total Vote in Last Race = 8,133
  • Participation Rate = 16%
  • Total Vote for Republican last Race = 7,390
  • Total Vote for Democrat last Race = 0
  • Total Vote for Independent last Race = 743
  • Localities = Amherst and Bedford Counties and Lynchburg City

There is a total of 26 precincts in District 23. 4 in Amherst County, 10 in Bedford County, 12 in Lynchburg City. Lynchburg City makes up a majority of the registered active voters in the district.

Here is the share of Active Voters by Locality:

Looking at that pie chart it is pretty obvious you would want to focus on Lynchburg City.

Here is chart showing the Republican vote share of active voters by locality. While it is obvious we ought to focus on Lynchburg City, there is enough potential in Bedford County to spend time in those precincts as well. but Bedford County yielded the Republican more supporters from a fraction of the registered voters.

The final scatterplot shows actual vote totals for Republican compared to total registered active voters in the district. It becomes very clear there is work to do across the board. The precincts that deserve the first ;look are those that fall below the line and to the right. they show soft support for the Republican. Although, we do know participation was significantly higher the last time a Democrat contested the race.

This is analysis I can do for your campaign simply based on publicly available data. If you work with me I can help you really zero on down to address by address data once I get a hold of your voter file to analyze.

You can request a file from ELECT office by contacting Vanessa Archie at vanessa.archie@elections.virginia.gov or at (804) 864-8908. Ask what it would take to obtain the Vote History List for District 23, let her know you are a candidate or a member of the campaign.

Support the Democratic candidate and if you are a candidate or working on a campaign check out my The Solution page on this website to see how I can help your campaign.

Let's Turn Virginia Blue in 2017. If you do not have a candidate running in your district. Run, let me help!

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