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Democrats Josh King & Jennifer Carrol Foy Challenge Virginia House of Delegates District 2 - Data Snapshot

Democrats Josh King & Jennifer Carrol Foy Challenge Virginia House of Delegates District 2 - Data Snapshot

District 2 is being contested by 2 Democratic candidates this cycle. The seat is currently held by Republican Mark Dudenhefer. A brisk primary appears to be the order of the day in this district. One of the 2 candidates this cycle did challenge Dudenhefer in 2015. Josh King's campaign fell short by just 125 votes. That is insanely close.

The 2 announced candidates are Josh King and Jennifer Carroll Foy:

District 2 Fast Facts

  • Residents = 80,010
  • Active Registered Voters = 40,465
  • Percent Registered = 51%
  • Total Vote in Last Race = 11,553
  • Participation Rate = 29%
  • Total Vote for Republican last Race = 5,839
  • Total Vote for Democrat last Race = 5,714
  • Localities = Stafford and Prince William Counties

Stafford County consists of 10 precincts while Prince William County consists of 11 precincts. The Democrat won 10 precincts & absentee/provisional votes while the Republican won 10 precincts. They actually tied in one precinct. The Democratic candidate won 1 precinct in Stafford County while the Republican won 2 precincts within Prince William County.

Active Voter Share by Locality:

This was a close low turnout race in 2015. That means there are any number of paths to victory but looking at the above graph it is obvious that the Democrat needs to focus on Prince William County. Of course there is plenty of opportunity in Stafford as well. With such a low active registered voter rate, voter registration drives might be a tactic to deploy in this district as well.

Let's take a look at the partisan share of vote in each locality.

Finally let's take a look at precinct by precinct performance between the 2 parties, compared to the active voters in those precincts. This is such a closely contested race, with low turnout, that there a lots of ways to approach this campaign. I would probably target the 2 precincts that are below the trend lines for both Republicans and Democrats. It is a sign of soft support for both parties, a little attention there might go a long way.

This is just a quick snapshot on some of the analysis I can do for your campaign simply based on publicly available data. If you work with me I can help you really zero on down to address by address data once I get a hold of your voter file to analyze.

You can request a file from the Secretary of States office by contacting Vanessa Archie at vanessa.archie@elections.virginia.gov or at (804) 864-8908. Ask what it would take to obtain the Vote History List for District 2, let her know you are a candidate or a member of the campaign.

Support the Democratic candidate and if you are a candidate or working on a campaign check out my The Solution page on this website to see how I can help your campaign.

Let's Turn Virginia Blue in 2017. If you do not have a candidate running in your district. Run, let me help!

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