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Virginia House of Delegates District 5 seat is vulnerable. Democrats just need someone to run! Data Snapshot

Virginia House of Delegates District 5 seat is vulnerable. Democrats just need someone to run! Data Snapshot

Out in southwestern Virginia, District 5 is not being contested yet by a Democratic candidate this cycle. We could really use someone to step up here. This vulnerable seat is currently held by Republican Israel O'Quinn. This seat has not been challenged by a Democrat in over a decade at least. The last time it was challenged at all was in 2011 when O'Quinn first won the seat, but the challenger was an independent.

District 5 Fast Facts

  • Residents = 80,010
  • Active Registered Voters = 46,077
  • Percent Registered = 58%
  • Total Vote in Last District 5 Race = 12,771
  • Participation Rate = 27%
  • Total Vote for Republican last Race = 12,771
  • Total Vote for Democrat last Race = 0
  • Localities = Grayson, Smyth and Washington Counties with Bristol and Galax Cities

There is a total of 38 precincts in District 5. 15 precincts with 9,526 active voters in Grayson County, 6 precincts with 6,706 active voters in Smyth County, 10 precincts with 16,809 active voters in Washington County, 4 precincts with 9,803 active voters in Bristol City and 3 precincts with 3,233 active voters in Galax City.

Here is the Republican vote share of Active Voters by Locality:

Looking at that pie chart it is clear that Washington County is important, but it is not overwhelmingly so. Opportunity can likely be found In Bristol City in particular. Some of the other graphics will demonstrate this as well.

Here is chart showing the Republican vote share of active voters by locality.

There were only 646 votes cast in the Bristol City Locality last election. That is remarkable out of 9,803 Active Registered Voters. that is a turnout of only 6.5%. I would focus a ton of energy here and in the Galax City area as they only had 778 votes cast. That participation rate was better though as there are only 3,233 active voters there. Still, this chart shows the scope and scale of opportunity in this district. No one has a lock with these kind of numbers. A district like this is winnable, such an abysmal turnout is a sign of a real problem for the person in office, they should be able to clear at minimum 15% turnout doing nothing, to get 6%...there is a problem here to be exploited.

You could not win it on the City Localities alone, but you might be able to really run up the score there and pull just enough from Grayson and Washington Counties to pull a surprise victory out. We just need to find a candidate to compete.

The final scatterplot shows actual vote totals for Republican compared to total registered active voters in the district by precinct. It becomes very clear there are some serious weak points for the Republican incumbent. The precincts that deserve the first ;look are those that fall the furthest below the line. They show what amounts to incredibly soft support for this Republican in this district. A candidate that challenges by simply listening and responding to the voters concerns stands a good shot at knocking this Republican off.

A candidate that challenges by simply listening and responding to the voters concerns stands a good shot at knocking this Republican off. If you have thought about running, but think there is no chance. There really is, the numbers don't lie. It won't be easy, but there is energy and help for you if you step up.

If you are interested in running or know someone you think would make a great candidate contact Grayson County Democratic Party Chair Eric Stetson at ericstetson@yahoo.com

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This is analysis I can do for your campaign simply based on publicly available data. If you work with me I can help you really zero on down to address by address data once I get a hold of your voter file to analyze.

You can request a file from the Secretary of States office by contacting Vanessa Archie at vanessa.archie@elections.virginia.gov or at (804) 864-8908. Ask what it would take to obtain the Vote History List for District 5, let her know you are a candidate or a member of the campaign.

Support the Democratic candidate and if you are a candidate or working on a campaign check out my The Solution page on this website to see how I can help your campaign.

Let's Turn Virginia Blue in 2017. If you do not have a candidate running in your district. Run, let me help!

Photo Credit: A view of Mount Rogers, Virginia’s highest peak. Photo by C. M. Bailey.
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