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Tristan Shields seeks to give voice to District 18 Democrats in Virginia - Data Snapshot

Tristan Shields seeks to give voice to District 18 Democrats in Virginia - Data Snapshot

District 18 is being contested by a Democratic candidate this cycle. The seat is currently held by Republican Michael Webert. This seat was not challenged by a Democrat in the last cycle. The last time it was challenged was in 2013 when Webert won by a resounding 6,670 votes out of 24,528 cast.

The announced candidates is Tristan Shields:

Campaign Website

District 18 Fast Facts

  • Residents = 80,010
    • Active Registered Voters = 50,953
  • Percent Registered = 64%
  • Total Vote in Last District 33 Race = 13,996
  • Participation Rate = 28%
  • Total Vote for Republican last Race = 13,996
  • Total Vote for Democrat last Race = 0
  • Localities = Culpeper, Fauquier, Rappahannock and Warren Counties

There is a total of 27 precincts in District 18. 5 in Culpeper County, 12 in Fauquier County, 6 in Rappahannock County and 4 in Warren County. Fauquier County makes up a majority of the registered active voters in the district.

Here is the partisan vote share of Active Voters by Locality:

Looking at that pie chart it is pretty obvious you would want to focus on Fauquier County.

Here is chart showing the Republican vote share of active voters by locality . This belies a certain weakness across all of the counties, but does little to change where the biggest opportunity is. That said, I would not focus on Fauquier to the exclusion of the other counties. I would need more detailed data to really figure out a good approach here.

The final scatterplot shows actual vote totals for Republican compared to total registered active voters in the district. It becomes very clear there is work to do across the board. The precincts that deserve the first ;look are those that fall below the line. they show softer support for the Republican.

This is analysis I can do for your campaign simply based on publicly available data. If you work with me I can help you really zero on down to address by address data once I get a hold of your voter file to analyze.

You can request a file from the Secretary of States office by contacting Vanessa Archie at vanessa.archie@elections.virginia.gov or at (804) 864-8908. Ask what it would take to obtain the Vote History List for District 18, let her know you are a candidate or a member of the campaign.

Support the Democratic candidate and if you are a candidate or working on a campaign check out my The Solution page on this website to see how I can help your campaign.

Let's Turn Virginia Blue in 2017. If you do not have a candidate running in your district. Run, let me help!

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