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Chris Hurst Seeks to Represent Virginia House of Delegates District 12 - Data Snaphot

Chris Hurst Seeks to Represent Virginia House of Delegates District 12 - Data Snaphot

District 12 is being contested by a Democratic candidate this cycle. The seat is currently held by Republican Joseph Yost. This seat was challenged by a Democrat in the last cycle, however, the declared Democrat appears to be a first-time candidate. Despite the competition it does appear that Yost scored a comfortable victory with a margin of 2,758 votes out of 15,832 cast in the district.

The announced candidates is Chris Hurst:

District 12 Fast Facts

  • Residents = 80,010
    • Active Registered Voters = 40,093
  • Percent Registered = 50%
  • Total Vote in Last District 33 Race = 15,832
  • Participation Rate = 40%
  • Total Vote for Republican last Race = 9,245
  • Total Vote for Democrat last Race = 6,587
  • Localities = Giles, Montgomery & Pulaski Counties and Radford City

There is a total of 31 precincts in District 12. 9 in Giles County, 17 in Montgomery County, 2 in Pulaski County and 3 in Radford City. The Republicans won 20 precincts and most of those by comfortable margins, while most that were won by the Democrat were more closely contested. And while 40% participation sounds bad, it is pretty strong compared to some of these Virginia districts since the races are in "off-year" cycles. I would definitely consider registration drives in this district as that 50% registered active voters rate is pretty low.

Here is the partisan vote share of Active Voters by Locality:

As noted above registration drives might be a key tactic, so while looking at the chart focusing on Montgomery County might make sense, a deeper dive on population to determine where the under registration rate is would be warranted.

Here is chart showing the vote share by precinct. This clearly shows that where the Republican won, they tended to do so decisively, the few "big wins" by the Democrat are in low turnout precincts. So low in fact we are talking about 3 and 4 votes in each precinct :

The final scatterplot shows actual vote totals for Republican and Democrat in the last race compared to total registered active voters in the district. It becomes very clear there is work to do across the board. The gap in each precinct is fairly narrow all things considered.

While this looks like a tough race, it is eminently winnable. It is encouraging to see many Democratic precincts beat the Republican trend line. It is a mark of how closely contested this district actually is despite the comfortable margin for the Republican last cycle.

This is analysis I can do for your campaign simply based on publicly available data. If you work with me I can help you really zero on down to address by address data once I get a hold of your voter file to analyze.

You can request a file from the Secretary of States office by contacting Vanessa Archie at vanessa.archie@elections.virginia.gov or at (804) 864-8908. Ask what it would take to obtain the Vote History List for District 12, let her know you are a candidate or a member of the campaign.

Support the Democratic candidate and if you are a candidate or working on a campaign check out my The Solution page on this website to see how I can help your campaign.

Let's Turn Virginia Blue in 2017. If you do not have a candidate running in your district. Run, let me help!

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