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Democrat Stephanie Cook steps up in District 9 Virginia House of Delegates race

Democrat Stephanie Cook steps up in District 9 Virginia House of Delegates race

A Democratic candidate is challenging for the District 9 seat for the first time since 2011.  Republican Charles Poindexter currently holds this post. Poindexter was able to secure 16,086 in this uncontested district the last cycle. Poindexter is facing a primary challenge in 2017.

THE ANNOUNCED DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATE IS STEPHANIE COOK

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DISTRICT 9 FAST FACTS

Residents = 80,010
Active Registered Voters = 47,056
Percent Registered = 59%
Total Vote in Last Race = 16,501
Participation Rate = 35%
Total Vote for Republican = 16,086
Total Vote for Democrat = 0
Total Vote Other = 415
Localities = Patrick, Henry and Franklin Counties

District 9 is made up of 39 precincts with 20 in Franklin County, 13 in Patrick County, and 6 in Henry County. The data makes it clear that, while there is an opportunity here, the Republican enjoys stable support. The chance here comes from the fact that in the last contested race the challenger was close just losing by 2,000 votes or so out of 25,000 cast.

Let's take a turn to some charts.

Here is the share of Active Voters by Locality:

Franklin County is clearly the dominant player here. But neither of the other counties is so small that you want to ignore them by any stretch of the imagination.

This next chart shows partisan vote share of total active voters per locality.

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The bar graph shows that while Franklin County is the largest target, the Republican draws support from this County at a relatively high rate. 38% participation there with 28% being the next highest rate in Patrick County. This difference reinforces the need to pay attention to all localities in this district. Even the smallest County yields pretty good opportunity.

The next bar graph breaks it down precinct by precinct. The initial at the beginning of the precinct name is the locality for the precinct. F = Franklin, H = Henry, and P = Patrick.

In yet another sign of how stable the Republican support is in this district, the precinct level data does not reveal any particular weak point to exploit. It looks as if taking the fight directly to your opponents strength might be the best tactic here, starting with Scruggs precinct. The Republican does enjoy strong support there, but there is also the largest number of people who did not vote. Since Poindexter's support is spread evenly across the district, you need to consider attacking his stronghold directly.

The final scatter plot shows actual vote totals versus the Active Registered Voter total per precinct. The weakest support for the Republican will be the precincts below the red line. Once again, this data demonstrates how consistent the support for the incumbent is. All of the dots being in a tight cluster is a sign of stability. Still, that one dot below the line off by itself is a precinct to attack early.

This review is analysis solely based on publicly available data. If you work with me, I can help you zero on down to address by address data once I get a hold of your voter file to analyze.

Support the Democratic candidate and if you are a candidate or working on a campaign check out my The Solution page on this website to see how I can help your campaign.

Let's Turn Virginia Blue in 2017. If you do not have a candidate running in your district run, let me help!

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