Al Durante first Democrat to challenge for District 54 Virginia HoD seat since 1993
A Democratic candidate is challenging for the District 54 seat for the first time since 1993. Republican Bobby Orrock currently holds this post. The Republican was able to secure 11,829 in this uncontested district the last cycle. Orrock is facing a Republican primary challenge. It is great to see a Democrat challenge this seat after 24 long years.
THE ANNOUNCED DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATE IS AL DURANTE
DISTRICT 54 FAST FACTS
Residents = 80,010
Active Registered Voters = 48,210
Percent Registered = 60%
Total Vote in Last Race = 12,271
Participation Rate = 25%
Total Vote for Republican = 11,829
Total Vote for Democrat = 0
Total Vote Other = 442
Localities = Caroline and Spotsylvania Counties
District 54 is made up of 18 precincts with 17 in Spotsylvania County and 1 in Caroline County. It has been a long time since a Democrat has stepped up in this district. You can assume, based on that alone, the Republican probably feels pretty safe. Let's take a look at the data and see if we could find places to look for opportunity.
Here is the share of Active Voters by Locality:
This seat is pretty much a Spotsylvania County district. You do not want to ignore the one precinct in Caroline County, but you also will not be spending too much time there either.
This next chart shows partisan vote share of total active voters per locality.
CLICK HERE TO SUPPORT AND GROW THIS CONTENT FOR RED DISTRICTS ACROSS THE COUNTRY
The bar graph reinforces the dominance of Spotsylvania County in this House of Delegates seat.
The next bar graph breaks it down precinct by precinct. The initial at the beginning of the precinct name is the locality for the precinct. C = Caroline and S = Spotsylvania.
While this chart shows pretty stable support for the Republican, it also shows areas to target. I would start looking more deeply at Lee Hill, Smith Station and Gayle precincts when building out any campaign plan in this district.
The final scatter plot shows actual vote totals versus the Active Registered Voter total per precinct. The weakest support for the Republican will be the precincts below the red line. The tight range reflects stable support for the Republican. The encouraging aspect of this graphic is that three of the largest five precincts fall below the line. That signals at minimum some measure of softness in support in those precincts.
This review is analysis solely based on publicly available data. If you work with me, I can help you zero on down to address by address data once I get a hold of your voter file to analyze.
Support the Democratic candidate and if you are a candidate or working on a campaign check out my The Solution page on this website to see how I can help your campaign.
Let's Turn Virginia Blue in 2017. If you do not have a candidate running in your district run, let me help!