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Tia Walbridge & Mavis Taintor Compete to Take On LaRock in Virginia District 33 - Data Snapshot

Tia Walbridge & Mavis Taintor Compete to Take On LaRock in Virginia District 33 - Data Snapshot

District 33 is being contested by 2 Democratic candidates this cycle. The seat is currently held by Republican Dave LaRock. This seat was challenged by a Democrat and a Libertarian in the last cycle, however, the 2 declared Democrats appear to be first-time candidates.Despite the competition it does appear that LaRock scored a resounding victory with a margin of 4,704 votes out of 20,027 cast in the district

The 2 announced candidates are Tia Walbridge and Mavis Taintor:

District 33 Fast Facts

  • Residents = 80,010
  • Active Registered Voters = 53,033
  • Percent Registered = 66%
  • Total Vote in Last District 33 Race = 20,027
  • Participation Rate = 38%
  • Total Vote for Republican last Race = 12,004
  • Total Vote for Democrat last Race = 7,300
  • Total Vote for Libertarian last Race = 723
  • Localities = Clarke, Frederick and Loudoun Counties

There is a total of 28 precincts in District 33. 6 in Clarke County, 5 in Frederick County and 17 in Loudoun County. The Republicans won every precinct, no matter the county in that last race. And while 38% particpation sounds bad, it is pretty strong compared to some of these Virginia districts. This will be a turnout drive in order to win. Gotta run up the score across the board.

Here is the partisan vote share of Active Voters by county:

As noted above, the Republican sort of crushed it last election. Tactically, based on the bar chart above, it is pretty clear any Democrat will want to focus on Loudoun to make up the ground.

Here is chart showing the vote share by precinct. There is only one precinct where the Republican did not win a majority of the vote in the last cycle, but neither did the Democrat:

The final scatterplot shows actual vote totals for Republican and Democrat in the last race compared to total registered active voters in the district. It becomes very clear there is work to do across the board. The gap in each precinct is fairly wide, there seems to be only two precincts that were relatively close considering the small scale of total votes cast.

While this looks like a tough race, it is eminently winnable. Yes, that 38% participation rate is not terrible in relation to off cycle elections, but it does give room for radical improvement with a good grassroots campaign.

This is just a quick snapshot on some of the analysis I can do for your campaign simply based on publicly available data. If you work with me I can help you really zero on down to address by address data once I get a hold of your voter file to analyze.

You can request a file from the Secretary of States office by contacting Vanessa Archie at vanessa.archie@elections.virginia.gov or at (804) 864-8908. Ask what it would take to obtain the Vote History List for District 33, let her know you are a candidate or a member of the campaign.

Support the Democratic candidate and if you are a candidate or working on a campaign check out my The Solution page on this website to see how I can help your campaign.

Let's Turn Virginia Blue in 2017. If you do not have a candidate running in your district. Run, let me help!

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