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Democrats Hala Ayala and Ken Boddye compete to represent District 51 in Virginia House of Delegates - data snapshot

Democrats Hala Ayala and Ken Boddye compete to represent District 51 in Virginia House of Delegates - data snapshot

Two Democratic candidates are competing to Represent the part in the District 51 Virginia House of Delegates race. Republican Rich Anderson is the current delegate for District 51. These candidates represent the first challenge by a Democrat since 2013. Anderson secured 12,688 votes of 13,515 in 2015.

THE ANNOUNCED DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATES ARE HALA AYALA AND KEN BODDYE

DISTRICT 51 FAST FACTS

Residents = 80,010
Registered Active Voters = 51,491
Percent Registered = 64%
Total Vote in Last District 21 Race = 13,515
Participation Rate = 21%
Total Vote for Republican last Race = 12,688
Total Vote for Democrat last Race = 0
Localities = Prince William County

This district is made up of 20 precincts within in Prince William County. In 2013 this race was close with a margin of only 1,839 votes out of 24,279 votes. The 2013 campaign 47% participation rate is pretty high, even for a gubernatorial election year. It will take some organizing to score a victory in this district.

Let's take a look at the Vote Share per Precinct from the last cycle to get a picture of weak areas of support for the Republican:

Digging into this data reveals reasonably broad support for the Republican across the precincts. That said Kerrydale might present a soft target, with a relatively low vote rate for the Republican compared to the high volume of people who did not vote the last cycle.

Another factor in this race is the high rate of absentee voters. Any campaign in this district needs to have a grasp of why that is happening and make sure they work absentee voting as part of their overall strategy.

This race is setting up to be a dynamic hard fought race.

Above is a plot of the Republican vote totals in the precincts. The red dots below the line represent the lowest hanging fruit due to softer support for the Republican than those precincts that fall above the line. The encouraging point here is that the largest precinct, furthest to the right, is well below the line. That and half of the six districts around 3,000 active registered voters or more fall below the line.

Just one additional chart. This one shows the change in Republican vote from 2013 to 2015. Those in negative figures show the lost votes for the Republican from cycle to cycle and the others are where he gained ground. Tactically there would be value at looking at the precincts where there was little change. There might be an opportunity to separate yourself in those precincts.

This review is analysis solely based on publicly available data. If you work with me, I can help you zero on down to address by address data once I get a hold of your voter file to analyze.

Support the Democratic candidate and if you are a candidate or working on a campaign check out my The Solution page on this website to see how I can help your campaign.

Let's Turn Virginia Blue in 2017. If you do not have a candidate running in your district run, let me help!

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