Democrat Jamaal Johnston steps up in District 60 Virginia House of Delegates race - data snapshot
A Democratic candidate is challenging for the District 60 seat for the first time since 2013. Republican James Edmunds currently holds this post. Freitas was able to secure 10,768 in this uncontested district the last cycle.
THE ANNOUNCED DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATE IS JAMAAL JOHNSTON
DISTRICT 60 FAST FACTS
Residents = 80,010
Active Registered Voters = 45,313
Percent Registered = 57%
Total Vote in Last Race = 10,860
Participation Rate = 24%
Total Vote for Republican = 10,768
Total Vote for Democrat = 0
Total Vote Other = 92
Localities = Campbell, Charlotte, Halifax and Prince Edward Counties
District 60 is made up of 43 precincts with 21 in Halifax County, 10 in Prince Edward County, 9 in Charlotte County, and 3 Campbell County. The interesting thing about this district is that the Republican tally is pretty stable no matter condition. Over the last five campaigns, the vote total the Republican drew ranged from this 10,768 total to 13,201. It did not matter if there was a Democrat on the ballot or if it was a gubernatorial year or not. The important thing to realize about that is that it gives you a solid number to hit to secure a victory in this district. You would not expect to see such stable numbers given the varied circumstances from race to race.
Let's take a turn to some charts.
Here is the share of Active Voters by Locality:
Halifax County is the dominant player regarding Active Voters in this district. Nearly half of all of those registered voters are in this locality. Prince Edward and Charlotte Counties do have significant amounts of voters too, so you ought not to fixate on Halifax County alone.
This next chart shows partisan vote share of total active voters per locality.
The bar graph shows that while Halifax County is the largest target, the Republican draws support from this County at a relatively high rate. 29% participation there with 19% being the next highest rate in Charlotte County. This difference just reinforces the need to pay attention to all localities in this district. Even the smallest County yields pretty good opportunity.
The next bar graph breaks it down precinct by precinct. The initial at the beginning of the precinct name is the locality for the precinct. C = Campbell, CH = Charlotte, H = Halifax, and PE = Prince Edward.
It is when you start looking precinct by precinct that areas to target become even more apparent. Two of the three Campbell County precincts have the most people who did not vote in the last cycle so spending time there could yield positive results. The combination of low turnout for the Republican against high numbers of Active Voters spells a target precinct. A few Prince Edward precincts appear to present significant chances to chip away at the Republican as well.
The final scatter plot shows actual vote totals versus the Active Registered Voter total per precinct. The weakest support for the Republican will be the precincts below the red line. The most encouraging thing this chart reveals is that seven of the ten largest precincts show the weakest support for the Republican. That highlights weaknesses to exploit in this race.
This review is analysis solely based on publicly available data. If you work with me, I can help you zero on down to address by address data once I get a hold of your voter file to analyze.
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