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Democrat Leigh Anne Bowling steps up in District 82 Virginia House of Delegates race - data snapshot

Democrat Leigh Anne Bowling steps up in District 82 Virginia House of Delegates race - data snapshot

One Democrat is competing to represent District 82 this cycle. Initially, Democrat Alvina Torres intended to run for the seat but did not qualify at the end of the initial process. A new Democrat has already stepped up to make sure this seat gets the challenge it deserves. Republican Jason Miyares currently holds this seat.  Miyares won this district by a margin of 4,711 out of 15,411 votes cast. While that is a large margin of victory considering the low number of votes cast, any Democrat that runs in this district still has a good shot to make serious headway here.

THE ANNOUNCED DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATE IS LEIGH ANNE BOWLING:

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DISTRICT 82 FAST FACTS

  • Residents = 80,010
  • Active Registered Voters = 53,211
  • Percent Registered = 67%
  • Total Vote in Last Race = 15,411
  • Participation Rate = 29%
  • Total Vote for Republican last Race = 10,046
  • Total Vote for Democrat last Race = 5,335
  • Localities = Virginia Beach City

There is a total of 19 precincts in District 82. Registration levels in this area look pretty good, but that participation rate for a contested race is pretty soft. There ought to be plenty of opportunities in District 82 as a result.

Let's dive right into the data now. Here is a bar graph showing the partisan vote share of active voters by precinct.

This chart highlights some interesting areas to target. First, Eastern Shore, London Bridge, and Plaza precincts all have a high volume of people that did not vote. The number of non-voters combined by the weak support for either party means the party that organizes best has the best shot at winning those precincts outright. These areas might be a great place to begin for sure.

Let's turn our attention to margins of victory by precinct.

From left to right the margins reflect the worst performing to best performing precincts for the Republican candidate. The Democrat only won two precincts in the last cycle. The most exciting facet of this data is the fact that, when compared to the first chart, is the worst performing precincts for the Republican are the areas with the most opportunity to grow.

The final scatter plot shows actual partisan vote totals for versus the Active Registered Voter total per precinct. The weakest support for the Republican is in the precincts below the red line, while the areas of strongest support for the Democrat are above the blue line. The best precinct to start with is that red dot furthest to the right and furthest below the red line, sure, the Democratic dot is not great there either, but it is closer to the blue line than even the red dot is. That is a mark of incredibly weak support for the Republican in the largest precinct in the district.

This analysis is the sort of thing I can do for your campaign solely based on publicly available data. If you work with me, I can help you zero on down to address by address data once I get a hold of your voter file to analyze.

You can request a file from ELECT office by contacting Vanessa Archie at vanessa.archie@elections.virginia.gov or at (804) 864-8908. Ask what it would take to obtain the Vote History List for District 82, let her know you are a candidate or a member of the campaign.

Support the Democratic candidate and if you are a candidate or working on a campaign check out my The Solution page on this website to see how I can help your campaign.

Let's Turn Virginia Blue in 2017. If you do not have a candidate running in your district run yourself, let me help!

Photo Credit: By Laura A. Macaluso, Ph.D. (Own work) [CC BY-SA 4.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0)], via Wikimedia Commons

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