Joshua Cole & Karen Hyland compete for Democratic banner for District 28 Virginia HoD - Data Sanpshot
Two Democrats are competing to represent District 28 this cycle. Republican Bill Howell currently holds this seat. Howell won this district by a margin of 2,684 out of drew 12,884 votes cast. Howell has decided not to seek reelection for this district. As of now, two Republicans are competing to represent this district as well.
THE ANNOUNCED DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATES ARE JOSHUA COLE & KAREN HYLAND:
DISTRICT 28 FAST FACTS
Residents = 80,010
Active Registered Voters = 45,356
Percent Registered = 57%
Total Vote in Last Race = 12,884
Participation Rate = 28%
Total Vote for Republican last Race = 7,764
Total Vote for Democrat last Race = 5,080
Localities = Fredericksburg City and Stafford County
There is a total of 21 precincts in District 28. Stafford County has the most precincts with 18 while Fredericksburg has 3. It is pretty apparent that much of the focus ought to be on Stafford County, but the base of support is in Fredericksburg, so that will be a good place to start to build momentum.
Here is the share of Active Voters by Locality:
The pie chart reaffirms where most of the vote is in this district is found. It will take digging into precinct by precinct data to reveal where the real opportunities are.
Here is a bar graph showing the partisan vote share of active voters by precinct. The initial at the beginning of the name represents the locality where the precinct is; S = Stafford County and F -= Fredericksburg City.
This chart highlights the areas with the most opportunity. The five furthest to the left represent the precincts where the Democrat won the majority last cycle. This chart reveals that Fredericksburg Precinct 1 presents the most opportunity of those 5. While Courthouse, Grafton, and Brooke appear to provide the best targets to gain ground in precincts won by the Republican last cycle.
Let's turn our attention to margins of victory by precinct.
It is important to note that while Grafton and Brooke to provide a lot of opportunity due to a high volume of non-voters, they are among the largest victories for the Republican last cycle as well. It may be worth targeting other red precincts as well given that fact.
The final scatter plot shows actual partisan vote totals for versus the Active Registered Voter total per precinct. The weakest support for the Republican is in the precincts below the red line, while the areas of strongest support for the Democrat are above the blue line. The best precincts to start with will be the two red points furthest to the right that is below even the blue line. That shows a lack of strength for them and opportunity for the Democrat.
CLICK TO SUPPORT DATA PROFILING ALL 4,000+ RED DISTRICTS ACROSS THE COUNTRY
This analysis is the sort of thing I can do for your campaign solely based on publicly available data. If you work with me, I can help you zero on down to address by address data once I get a hold of your voter file to analyze.
You can request a file from ELECT office by contacting Vanessa Archie at firstname.lastname@example.org or at (804) 864-8908. Ask what it would take to obtain the Vote History List for District 28, let her know you are a candidate or a member of the campaign.
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