Democrats Melissa Dart & Lizzie Drucker-Basch compete to represent District 56 in Virginia HoD
Two Democrats are competing to represent District 56 this cycle. Republican Peter Farrell currently holds this seat. There has not been a Democratic challenger since 2009. Farrell drew 15,126 votes in this uncontested race the last cycle. Farrell has decided not to seek reelection for this district. As of now, three Republicans are competing to represent this district as well.
THE ANNOUNCED DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATES ARE MELISSA DART & LIZZIE DRUCKER-BASCH:
DISTRICT 56 FAST FACTS
Residents = 80,010
Active Registered Voters = 50,546
Percent Registered = 63%
Total Vote in Last Race = 15,126
Participation Rate = 30%
Total Vote for Republican last Race = 15,126
Total Vote for Democrat last Race = 0
Localities = Goochland, Henrico, Louisa and Spotsylvania Counties
There is a total of 29 precincts in District 56. Louisa has the most precincts with 15 while Goochland has 5, Henrico 7 and Spotsylvania just 2. While Louisa has the highest count of precincts, voter registration in the Henrico County precincts appears high since they are only a few points behind Louisa on total active voter share percentage as seen in the pie chart below.
Here is the share of Active Voters by Locality:
Just judging by the pie chart, it is clear the focus will be on Henrico and Louisa County precincts.
Here is a bar graph showing the Republican vote share of active voters by precinct.
This chart highlights the areas with the most opportunity. Those areas are largely the precincts in Henrico County given the high volume of people who did not turn out there. So while both Henrico and Louisa are important, just given the opportunity shown in the data, I might start off by reviewing Henrico more closely.
The final scatter plot shows actual vote totals for the Republican versus the Active Registered Voter total per precinct. The weakest support is in the precincts below the line. These precincts would likely be an excellent starting point for building support for any Democratic campaign in this district.
This analysis is the sort of thing I can do for your campaign solely based on publicly available data. If you work with me, I can help you zero on down to address by address data once I get a hold of your voter file to analyze.
You can request a file from ELECT office by contacting Vanessa Archie at firstname.lastname@example.org or at (804) 864-8908. Ask what it would take to obtain the Vote History List for District 56, let her know you are a candidate or a member of the campaign.
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Let's Turn Virginia Blue in 2017. If you do not have a candidate running in your district run yourself, let me help!