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District 78 Virginia House of Delegates is a big opportunity for Democrats, we just need a candidate - data snapshot

District 78 Virginia House of Delegates is a big opportunity for Democrats, we just need a candidate - data snapshot

There are no Democratic candidates in District 78 competing for the seat currently held by Republican Jay Leftwich.  2013 was the last year the Democrats challenged for this seat. The Republican only drew 4,689 votes in 2015. This district is more than ripe for the picking. That is abysmally low participation.

DISTRICT 78 FAST FACTS

  • Residents = 80,010
  • Active Registered Voters = 50,035
  • Percent Registered = 63%
  • Total Vote in Last District 81 Race = 5,135
  • Participation Rate = 10%
  • Total Vote for Republican last Race = 4,689
  • Total Vote for Democrat last Race = 0
  • Total Vote for Other last Race = 446
  • Localities = Chesapeake City

There are twenty-three precincts in Chesapeake City. This participation rate is very low. Participation is a measure number of votes cast divided by total active voters. Given that low rate, this district is more than ripe for the picking.

Let's take a look!

Total Vote Share

I post this pie chart just to show the scale of non-participation in this race. I know this seat is not contested, but the fact that the Republican can not even draw 5,000 votes is a great indication of weak support. Opportunity abounds!

Let's look at the next chart.

Here is the partisan vote share by precinct:

The above bar chart illustrates that opportunity is everywhere. Not at all surprising given the low participation rate. Work every precinct hard and you will be in a fantastic position to win.

The final chart is a scatterplot showing the Republican vote set against the total of active registered voters by precinct. I would target the precincts that fall below the red line. The further right and below the line the weaker the support for the Republican and the more opportunity for a Democratic campaign.

This analysis is the sort of thing I can do for your campaign solely based on publicly available data. If you work with me, I can help you zero on down to address by address data once I get a hold of your voter file to analyze.

You can request a file from ELECT office by contacting Vanessa Archie at vanessa.archie@elections.virginia.gov or at (804) 864-8908. Ask what it would take to obtain the Vote History List for District 78, let her know you are a candidate or a member of the campaign.

Support the Democratic candidate and if you are a candidate or working on a campaign check out my The Solution page on this website to see how I can help your campaign.

Let's Turn Virginia Blue in 2017. If you do not have a candidate running in your district run yourself, let me help!

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