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Democrats Kimberly Anne Tucker & Nancy Carothers compete for District 81 Virginia HoD seat for first time since 2009

Democrats Kimberly Anne Tucker & Nancy Carothers compete for District 81 Virginia HoD seat for first time since 2009

There are two Democratic candidates in District 81 competing for the seat currently held by Republican Barry Knight. A Green party candidate contested this race last cycle. 2009 was the last year the Democrats challenged for this seat. The Republican won by 3,062 votes. It is great to see two Democrats stepping up to compete for this seat this fall. It would be worth reaching out to the Greens to ask them to sit this cycle out or to compete in our primary. We do not need split voting given the stakes.

THE ANNOUNCED DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATES ARE KIMBERLY ANNE TUCKER AND NANCY CAROTHERS

DISTRICT 81 FAST FACTS

  • Residents = 80,010
  • Active Registered Voters = 44,350
  • Percent Registered = 55%
  • Total Vote in Last District 81 Race = 7,796
  • Participation Rate = 18%
  • Total Vote for Republican last Race = 5,429
  • Total Vote for Democrat last Race = 0
  • Total Vote for Green Party last Race = 2,367
  • Localities = Chesapeake City, Virginia Beach City

There are two localities in the district; ten precincts in Chesapeake City and ten precincts in Virginia Beach City. The low participation rate and the narrow margin for going against a minor party are great signs there is a good deal of opportunity here. Looking at the data a little closer reveals opportunity in both localities.

Let's take a look!

Active Voter Share by Locality

The precinct count being even it is not surprising to find that the Active Voter distribution is relatively even as well. Virginia Beach would draw a little more attention based on this pie chart, but certainly not to the exclusion of Chesapeake City at all.

Here is the partisan vote share by locality:

The above bar chart illustrates that while there are in fact more active voters in Virginia Beach, the opportunity with voters that did not vote the last cycle is about even in either locality. It is going to take digging down into precinct-level data to begin to be able to sort out priorities.

Partisan Vote Share by Precinct:

The precinct-level detail begins to bring more clarity to the picture. Based on this data a campaign in this district would prioritize Bells Mill in Chesapeake City as well as Culver and Corporate Landing in Virginia Beach. That said, there is plenty of opportunity in this district. It appears to be one of the ripest to turn this fall.

The final chart is a scatterplot showing the partisan vote set against the total of active registered voters by precinct. I would target the precincts that fall below the red line. The further right and below the line the weaker the support for the Republican and the more opportunity for a Democratic campaign.

 

This analysis is the sort of thing I can do for your campaign solely based on publicly available data. If you work with me, I can help you zero on down to address by address data once I get a hold of your voter file to analyze.

You can request a file from ELECT office by contacting Vanessa Archie at vanessa.archie@elections.virginia.gov or at (804) 864-8908. Ask what it would take to obtain the Vote History List for District 81, let her know you are a candidate or a member of the campaign.

Support the Democratic candidate and if you are a candidate or working on a campaign check out my The Solution page on this website to see how I can help your campaign.

Let's Turn Virginia Blue in 2017. If you do not have a candidate running in your district run yourself, let me help!

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