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Kelly Delucia challenges in District 96 Virginia HoD seat not contested by a Democrat since 2007

Kelly Delucia challenges in District 96 Virginia HoD seat not contested by a Democrat since 2007

A Democratic candidate is challenging for the District 96 seat for the first time since 2007.  Republican Brenda Pogge currently holds this district. Pogge faced an Independent challenger last cycle, however. In 2015 she drew 12,010 votes out of a total of 19,665 cast. So far there is no independent in this race, but there often is. Hopefully, none steps into the race. If someone does, it may be worth the party having a conversation with them.

THE ANNOUNCED DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATE IS KELLY DELUCIA

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DISTRICT 96 FAST FACTS

  • Residents = 80,010
  • Active Registered Voters = 56,044
  • Percent Registered = 70%
  • Total Vote in Last Race = 19,665
  • Participation Rate = 35%
  • Total Vote for Republican = 12,010
  • Total Vote for Democrat = 0
  • Total vote for Independent = 
  • Total Vote Other = 50
  • Localities = James City County and York County

District 96 is made up of 20 precincts with 12 in James City County and 8 in York County. I must say this appears to be a pretty activated district already. That 70% Active Registered Voters number is pretty high, and to get a 35% participation rate out of that is pretty good, particularly without a Democrat on the ballot contesting this race last cycle (or for a decade). That said, there is plenty of opportunity for a Democrat here. 

Let's take a turn to some charts.

Here is the share of Active Voters by Locality:

While the number of precincts is not that far apart when you drop it into a pie chart you can see where the greatest focus ought to be. There is more evidence that James City County is where the real opportunity lies in this district.

This next chart shows partisan vote share of total active voters per locality.

Once again, the biggest area of opportunity is obviously in James City County. The greatest number of people that did not vote at all and the greatest number for someone other than the Republican. James City County has my attention. That said, there is plenty of opportunity in the York County precincts as well. Let's take a look.

The next bar chart breaks it down precinct by precinct. The initial at the beginning of the precinct name is the locality the precinct can be found in.

The first two charts made it clear that James City County deserves a great deal of focus from any Democratic campaign in this area. This precinct level chart shows that there is some real opportunity in York County as well. I would take a look at Dare and Magruder precincts for sure, plus a few others.

The final scatter plot shows actual vote totals versus the Active Registered Voter total per precinct. The weakest support for the Republican will be the precincts below the red line. The best part is, 3 of the six largest precincts fall below even the purple Independent line. That spells opportunity!

This is analysis I can do for your campaign simply based on publicly available data. If you work with me I can help you really zero on down to address by address data once I get a hold of your voter file to analyze.

You can request a file from ELECT office by contacting Vanessa Archie at vanessa.archie@elections.virginia.gov or at (804) 864-8908. Ask what it would take to obtain the Vote History List for District 96, let her know you are a candidate or a member of the campaign.

Support the Democratic candidate and if you are a candidate or working on a campaign check out my The Solution page on this website to see how I can help your campaign.

Let's Turn Virginia Blue in 2017. If you do not have a candidate running in your district. Run, let me help!

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For Virginia Podcast

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