Ken Boddye Rises to Challenge for District 51 Seat In Virginia House of Delegates Race - Data Snapshot

Ken Boddye Rises to Challenge for District 51 Seat In Virginia House of Delegates Race - Data Snapshot

District 51 is currently being contested by 1 Democratic candidate so far this cycle. The seat is currently held by Republican Rich Anderson. This seat was not challenged by a Democrat in the last cycle. It was last contested, in a close race, in 2013.

The announced Democratic candidate for this seat is Ken Boddye:

District 51 Fast Facts

  • Residents = 80,010
  • Registered Active Voters = 51,491
  • Percent Registered = 64%
  • Total Vote in Last District 21 Race = 11,231
  • Participation Rate = 21%
  • Total Vote for Republican last Race = 12,688
  • Total Vote for Democrat last Race = 0
  • Localities = Prince William County

This district is made up of 20 precincts within in Prince William County. As noted above the 2013 race was fairly close with a margin of only 1,839 votes out of 24,279 votes. Based on last cycle active voter registration totals that would be a 47% particpation rate. That is a very high level of particpation looking at these races so far.

There was an unusually high level of Absentee ballots in this race last cycle, here is the share:

Looking at the pie chart, the share of Absentee ballots is pretty notable. If counted as a precinct it would have been the 4th largest vote total of the 20 precincts. At first, I thought it was likely a lot of military votes, but within the district, there are only 387 military and overseas registered voters (probably numbers based on requested ballots) Of all of the districts I have reviewed so far this is among the highest rates by far. I would love any comments as to why that might be the case in this particular district.

This race is setting up to be a dynamic hard fought race.

Here is a plot of the Republican vote totals in the precincts. This is a pretty narrow range of performance, but the precincts below the line would be where you want to look for support first:

Just one additional chart. This one shows the change in Republican vote from 2013 to 2015. Those in negative figures show the lost votes for the republican from cycle to cycle and the others are where he gained ground. tactically there would be value at looking at the precincts where there was little change. there might be an opportunity to separate yourself in those precincts.

This is just a quick snapshot on some of the analysis I can do for your campaign simply based on publically available data. If you work with me I can help you really zero on down to address by address data once I get a hold of your voter file to analyze.

You can request a file from the Secretary of States office by contacting Vanessa Archie at vanessa.archie@elections.virginia.gov or at (804) 864-8908. Ask what it would take to obtain the Vote History List for District 51, let her know you are a candidate or a member of the campaign.

Support the Democratic candidate and if you are a candidate or working on a campaign check out my The Solution page on this website to see how I can help your campaign.

Let's Turn Virginia Blue in 2017. If you do not have a candidate running in your district. Run, let me help!

Can “the Women” Oust Del. Manoli Loupassi? (from BlueVirginia.us)

2017 Virginia House of Delegates Campaign - Democratic Candidates

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