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Michael Wade contests seat unchallenged since 2009, Virginia HoD District 91 - Data Snapshot

Michael Wade contests seat unchallenged since 2009, Virginia HoD District 91 - Data Snapshot

District 91 is being contested by a Democratic candidate for the first time since 2009. The seat is currently held by Republican Gordon Helsel. . In 2015 Helsel drew only 7,173 votes out of a total of 7,580 cast. The voter registration appears to be relatively low in this district, the turnout is certainly poor, therefore, this seat provides a lot of opportunity fro Democrats.

THE ANNOUNCED DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATE IS MICHAEL WADE

DISTRICT 91 FAST FACTS

  • Residents = 80,010
  • Active Registered Voters = 45,363
  • Percent Registered = 57%
  • Total Vote in Last Race = 7,580
  • Participation Rate = 17%
  • Total Vote for Republican last Race = 7,173
  • Total Vote for Democrat last Race = 0
  • Total Vote Other = 407
  • Localities = York County, Hampton and Poquoson Cities

District 91 is made up of 16 precincts with 9 in Hampton City, 4 in York County, 3 in Poquoson City. It is pretty evident that Hampton City is the major locality in this district. 3 of the top 5 precincts in terms of numbers of Active Voters fall under the meager 17% participation rate that was the average for this district as well.

Let's take a turn to some charts.

Here is the share of Active Voters by Locality:

The pie chart just reinforces what we already assumed based on the total precinct count. Hampton City is where most of the vote is in this district.

This next chart shows partisan vote share of total active voters per locality.

Wow, just wow. There are so many non-voters in this district it will be difficult to decide where to focus. I mean definitely Hampton City, but really there is opportunity across the board. No one area looks to be strongly in favor of the incumbent. York County is the closest thing to a strong hold for him.

The next bar chart breaks it down precinct by precinct. The initial at the beginning of the precinct name is the locality the precinct can be found in.

The precinct level data makes it clear that Hampton City is where the real opportunity lies. Some of the precincts with the most voters also happen to be the precincts where the Republican drew the fewest votes. That is a good combination for any Democratic challenger.

The final scatter plot shows actual vote totals versus the Active Registered Voter total per precinct. The weakest support for the Republican will be the precincts below the red line. The best part is, 3 of the 6 largest precincts fall below the red line. That spells opportunity!

This is analysis I can do for your campaign simply based on publicly available data. If you work with me I can help you really zero on down to address by address data once I get a hold of your voter file to analyze.

You can request a file from ELECT office by contacting Vanessa Archie at vanessa.archie@elections.virginia.gov or at (804) 864-8908. Ask what it would take to obtain the Vote History List for District 91, let her know you are a candidate or a member of the campaign.

Support the Democratic candidate and if you are a candidate or working on a campaign check out my The Solution page on this website to see how I can help your campaign.

Let's Turn Virginia Blue in 2017. If you do not have a candidate running in your district. Run, let me help!

My father, love, and the end of my anger.

My father, love, and the end of my anger.

Veronica Coleman wins unassembled caucus to represent Democrats in District 84 Virginia House of Delegates race.

Veronica Coleman wins unassembled caucus to represent Democrats in District 84 Virginia House of Delegates race.