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Carey, Delaney and Risheq Compete for Nomination for District 67 Virginia HoD Seat - Data Sanpshot

Carey, Delaney and Risheq Compete for Nomination for District 67 Virginia HoD Seat - Data Sanpshot

District 67 is being contested by 3 Democratic candidate so far this cycle. The seat is currently held by Republican Jim LeMunyon. This seat was not challenged by a Democrat in the last cycle. LeMunyon got 11,231 votes out of the 11,792 cast.

The announced Democratic candidates for this seat are John Carey, Karrie Delaney and Hannah Risheq:

District 67 Fast Facts

  • Residents = 80,010
  • Registered Active Voters = 52,383
  • Percent Registered = 65%
  • Total Vote in Last District 21 Race = 11,231
  • Participation Rate = 21%
  • Total Vote for Republican last Race = 11,231
  • Total Vote for Democrat last Race = 0
  • Localities = Loudoun and Fairfax Counties

The precinct count is a little furry, I am relying on two public sources to create the data and they do not match. My best guess is there are 3 Loudoun County precincts and 16 Fairfax County precincts but don't hold me to that.In any case, this district is clearly centered in Fairfax County.

Here is the vote share by locality:

This race is really wide open frankly. 21% participation is pretty bad, so there is a lot of opportunities. Of the 19 total precincts, 10 of them are less than 21% participation. Those would definitely be the precincts to target early on. Of course, a deeper dive on the voter file would be helpful in setting priorities, but those softest areas are a good place to look first.

To see what I mean about wide open, lets take a look at Vote Share by Precinct:

Rocky Run, Waples Mill and Little River are precincts with a lot of opportunity, most of them actually have a lot of opportunity.

Here is a plot of the Republican vote totals in the precincts. This is a pretty narrow range of performance, but the precincts below the line would be where you want to look for support first:

This is just a quick snapshot on some of the analysis I can do for your campaign simply based on publicly available data. If you work with me I can help you really zero on down to address by address data once I get a hold of your voter file to analyze.

You can request a file from the Secretary of States office by contacting Vanessa Archie at vanessa.archie@elections.virginia.gov or at (804) 864-8908. Ask what it would take to obtain the Vote History List for District 67, let her know you are a candidate or a member of the campaign.

Support the Democratic candidate and if you are a candidate or working on a campaign check out my The Solution page on this website to see how I can help your campaign.

Let's Turn Virginia Blue in 2017. If you do not have a candidate running in your district. Run, let me help!

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