Democrat Steve Aycock Steps Up in District 88 Virginia House of Delegates Race - Data Snapshot
District 88 is being contested by a Democratic candidate this cycle. The seat is currently held by Republican ML Cole. He ran uncontested last cycle. In 2015 Cole drew 11,123 out of a total of 11,783 cast. There is a Green Candidate entered into this race as well. I really think, given the crisis of Republicans being so close to being able to amend the Constitution (24 state legislative seats away) it would be worth reaching out to the Green and seeing if they would at least consider running in our primary or dropping out.
THE ANNOUNCED DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATE IS STEVE AYCOCK
DISTRICT 88 FAST FACTS
- Residents = 80,010
- Active Registered Voters = 49,336
- Percent Registered = 62%
- Total Vote in Last Race = 11,783
- Participation Rate = 31%
- Total Vote for Republican last Race = 11,123
- Total Vote for Democrat last Race = 0
- Total Vote Other = 764
- Localities = Fauquier, Spotsylvania & Stafford Counties; Fredericksburg City
District 88 is made up of 21 precincts with 8 in Stafford County, 7 in Spotsylvania County, 3 in each in Fauquier County and Fredericksburg City. Those precincts counts translate into Stafford and Spotsylvania counties make up 72% of the Active Voters in the district. That is not always the case.
Let's take a turn to some charts.
Here is the share of Active Voters by Locality:
While instructive, you would want to take a hard look at Spotsylvania and Stafford Counties, we need to look beyond this pie chart to begin to understand more what is going on here.
This next chart shows partisan vote share of total active voters per locality.
This bar chart largely reinforces the lesson of the pie chart in terms of the counties to focus on. That said, there are enough non-voters revealed in this data to pursue votes in Fredericksburgs 3 precincts anyway. I mean, you do not want to ignore any locality, I am just talking about how you prioritize working a district.
The next bar chart breaks it down precinct by precinct. The initial at the beginning of the precinct name is the locality the precinct can be found in.
Like I said above, of course you are going to spend a ton of time in Spotsylvania and Stafford Counties, but looking at this data by precicnt reveals a lot of opportunity in Fredericksburg as well.
The final scatter plot shows actual vote totals versus the Active Registered Voter total per precinct. The weakest support for the Republican will be the precincts below the red line.
This is analysis I can do for your campaign simply based on publicly available data. If you work with me I can help you really zero on down to address by address data once I get a hold of your voter file to analyze.
You can request a file from ELECT office by contacting Vanessa Archie at firstname.lastname@example.org or at (804) 864-8908. Ask what it would take to obtain the Vote History List for District 88, let her know you are a candidate or a member of the campaign.
Support the Democratic candidate and if you are a candidate or working on a campaign check out my The Solution page on this website to see how I can help your campaign.
Let's Turn Virginia Blue in 2017. If you do not have a candidate running in your district. Run, let me help!