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Democrat Erin Edlow Runs in District 84 Virginia House of Delegates Race - Data Snapshot

Democrat Erin Edlow Runs in District 84 Virginia House of Delegates Race - Data Snapshot

District 84 is being contested by a Democratic candidate this cycle. The seat is currently held by Republican Glenn Davis. He ran uncontested last cycle. In 2015 Davis drew 6,810 votes in that uncontested race. It is great to see a Democrat run in this district. It is ripe for the picking.

THE ANNOUNCED DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATE IS ERIN EDLOW

DISTRICT 84 FAST FACTS

  • Residents = 80,010
  • Active Registered Voters = 46,720
  • Percent Registered = 58%
  • Total Vote in Last Race = 7,268
  • Participation Rate = 16%
  • Total Vote for Republican last Race = 6,810
  • Total Vote for Democrat last Race = 0
  • Total Vote Other = 476
  • Localities = Virginia Beach City

District 84 is made up of 17 precincts in the Virginia Beach City locality. It is probably a heavy military area just off the Norfolk area.

Here is the share of Active Voters by Precinct:

Registration rates appear fairly stable across precincts. That indicates that, while always important, I am not sure I would prioritize voter registration drives in this particular area. I would need to look at more detailed make that assessment for certain though.

This next chart shows republican vote share compared to those that did not vote by precinct.

With such low participation it is pretty clear opportunity abounds across the district. That said, focusing on the areas with the largest volume of people who did not vote last cycle probably represents the ripest territory to start with.

The final scatter plot shows actual vote totals versus the Active Registered Voter total per precinct. The weakest support for the Republican will be the precincts below the red line. that one red dot way off to the right all by itself is prime territory for certain. These precincts would form a good starting point for building support for any Democratic campaign in this district.

This is analysis I can do for your campaign simply based on publicly available data. If you work with me I can help you really zero on down to address by address data once I get a hold of your voter file to analyze.

You can request a file from ELECT office by contacting Vanessa Archie at vanessa.archie@elections.virginia.gov or at (804) 864-8908. Ask what it would take to obtain the Vote History List for District 84, let her know you are a candidate or a member of the campaign.

Support the Democratic candidate and if you are a candidate or working on a campaign check out my The Solution page on this website to see how I can help your campaign.

Let's Turn Virginia Blue in 2017. If you do not have a candidate running in your district. Run, let me help!

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