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Coleman, Rodman, Savage & Smith Compete to Represent Democrats in Virginia HoD District 73 Race

Coleman, Rodman, Savage & Smith Compete to Represent Democrats in Virginia HoD District 73 Race

District 73 is being contested by 4 Democratic candidates this cycle. The seat is currently held by Republican John O'Bannon. he ran uncontested last cycle. In 2015 O'Bannon drew 12,514 votes in that uncontested race. It is exciting to see so many people challenge for this seat this cycle, it should be a dynamic race!

THE ANNOUNCED DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATES ARE BILL COLEMAN, DEBRA RODMAN, CHELSEA SAVAGE & SARAH SMITH

DISTRICT 73 FAST FACTS

  • Residents = 80,010
  • Active Registered Voters = 47,657
  • Percent Registered = 60%
  • Total Vote in Last Race = 13,514
  • Participation Rate = 28%
  • Total Vote for Republican last Race = 12,514
  • Total Vote for Democrat last Race = 0
  • Total Vote Other = 760
  • Localities = Henrico County

A very straight forward district in terms of locality. District 73 is comprised of 22 precincts all contained within the Henrico County Locality. There are quite a few precincts that represent significant opportunity for all of these candidates. Let's take a look at teh Active Registered Voters to get a clearer picture where the best opportunity lies for whomever wins the primary/caucus process for the Democrats.

Here is the share of Active Voters by Precinct:

Well, there 3 precincts that jump out at me here, Hungary Creek, Staples Mill and Tuckahoe. Just the volume of active registered voters is a good sign of opportunity. This bar graph however is not definitive. Let's dig a little deeper.

This next chart shows republican vote share compared to those that did not vote by precinct.

This chart reinforces the importance of Hungary Creek and Staples Mill but reveals two precincts that look to present more opportunity than Tuckahoe does. Tucker and Pinch Beck both appear to have as many or more people that did not vote as in Tuchaho. The real advantage they have, in terms of priorities, is they do show less support for the Republican candidate. Of course you would want to spend time everywhere, this just helps set up priorities.

The final scatter plot shows actual vote totals versus the Active Registered Voter total per precinct. The weakest support for the Republican will be the precincts below the red line. The two precincts furthest from the red line represent real weak support for the Republican. These precincts would form a good starting point for building support for any Democratic campaign in this district.

This is analysis I can do for your campaign simply based on publicly available data. If you work with me I can help you really zero on down to address by address data once I get a hold of your voter file to analyze.

You can request a file from ELECT office by contacting Vanessa Archie at vanessa.archie@elections.virginia.gov or at (804) 864-8908. Ask what it would take to obtain the Vote History List for District 73, let her know you are a candidate or a member of the campaign.

Support the Democratic candidate and if you are a candidate or working on a campaign check out my The Solution page on this website to see how I can help your campaign.

Let's Turn Virginia Blue in 2017. If you do not have a candidate running in your district. Run, let me help!

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