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Cathy Copeland & Brent Finnegan Step Up in District 26 Virginia House of Delegates Race - Data Snapshot

Cathy Copeland & Brent Finnegan Step Up in District 26 Virginia House of Delegates Race - Data Snapshot

District 26 is being contested by 2 Democratic candidates that announced yesterday March 15. The seat is currently held by Republican Tony Wilt. he ran uncontested last cycle. In 2015 Wilt drew 6,561 votes in that uncontested race. The registration numbers in this district are also pretty low. It is great to see two Democrats run in this district. It is ripe for the picking.

THE ANNOUNCED DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATES CATHY COPELAND & BRENT FINNEGAN

DISTRICT 26 FAST FACTS

  • Residents = 80,010
  • Active Registered Voters = 36,162
  • Percent Registered = 45%
  • Total Vote in Last Race = 6,996
  • Participation Rate = 18%
  • Total Vote for Republican last Race = 6,561
  • Total Vote for Democrat last Race = 0
  • Total Vote Other = 435
  • Localities = Rockingham County and Harrisonburg City

District 26 is comprised of 2 localities, Rockingham County and Harrisonburg City. There are 21 precincts in all with 14 in Rockingham County and 7 in Harrisonburg City. While that seems like that means Rockingham will draw focus, when you look at the current levels of Active Voters, there appears to be opportunity across the board.

Here is the share of Active Voters by Locality:

As noted above, this District is pretty evenly split amongst the localities. That said, with such a low number of people even registered in this district registration drives should probably feature heavily in any campaign plan for this district. I normally don't pitch that tactic as a priority (although it is always important) because the number one indicator of whether someone will vote or not is if they have voted before.

This next chart shows republican vote share compared to those that did not vote by precinct.

The Harrisonburg City precincts are clearly where the opporunity lies in this district. Every precinct in Harrisonburg City had more people that did not vote than ANY precinct in Rockingham County. That is a clear indication of weak support for the Republican and weak support for them means opportunity for us. That and you need to go where the people are. Of course, you don't want to ignore Rockingham County, this district is wide open really.

The final scatter plot shows actual vote totals versus the Active Registered Voter total per precinct. The weakest support for the Republican will be the precincts below the red line. The two precincts furthest from the red line represent real weak support for the Republican. These precincts would form a good starting point for building support for any Democratic campaign in this district.

This is analysis I can do for your campaign simply based on publicly available data. If you work with me I can help you really zero on down to address by address data once I get a hold of your voter file to analyze.

You can request a file from ELECT office by contacting Vanessa Archie at vanessa.archie@elections.virginia.gov or at (804) 864-8908. Ask what it would take to obtain the Vote History List for District 26, let her know you are a candidate or a member of the campaign.

Support the Democratic candidate and if you are a candidate or working on a campaign check out my The Solution page on this website to see how I can help your campaign.

Let's Turn Virginia Blue in 2017. If you do not have a candidate running in your district. Run, let me help!

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