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Cantrell, Colaw and Wandling Compete to Win District 64 Virginia House of Delegates Seat

Cantrell, Colaw and Wandling Compete to Win District 64 Virginia House of Delegates Seat

District 64 is being contested by 3 Democratic candidates this cycle. The seat is currently held by Republican Rick Morris. He is not running this cycle even though he ran uncontested last cycle. There are 2 Republicans and 3 Democrats declared for this seat. In 2015 Morris drew 15,208 votes in that uncontested race. This seat is wide open this year. Should be a fun race to follow.

THE ANNOUNCED DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATES ARE JERRY CANTRELL, REBECCA COLAW AND JOHN WANDLING

DISTRICT 64 FAST FACTS

  • Residents = 80,010
  • Active Registered Voters = 54,184
  • Percent Registered = 68%
  • Total Vote in Last Race = 15,208
  • Participation Rate = 28%
  • Total Vote for Republican last Race = 15,208
  • Total Vote for Democrat last Race = 0
  • Localities = Isle of Wight, Prince George, Southampton, Surry and Sussex Counties as well as Franklin and Suffolk Cities

This district includes a whole variety of localities. Isle of Wight County has the most precincts with 14 followed in descending order by Prince George County with 9, Surry County with 6, Southampton County with 5, Sussex County with 4 and Franklin and Suffolk Cities each with 3. Voter registration appears to be high, so the distribution of Active Voters across the precincts will be pretty stable.

Here is the share of Active Voters by Locality:

While there are a lot of localities included in this district most of the energy should obviously be spent on Isle of Wight and Prince George Counties. You don't want to ignore the other areas, it is just those two should form your priority as a candidate.

This next chart shows republican vote share compared to those that did not vote by locality.

This chart simply reinforces where most of the opportunity lies, Isle of Wight and Prince George Counties. This does reveal that there is some small gains to be made in Suffolk City as well.

Here is chart showing the vote share of active vote rs by precinct. The initial at the beginning of each precinct name indicates the locality the precinct is in, (I) Isle of Wight, (P) Prince George, (S) Southampton, (SU) Surry, (SX) Sussex, (F) Franklin and (SK) Suffolk.

Breaking it down by precinct is somewhat revealing. Definitely want to spend some time in Holland precinct in Suffolk City as well as Blano and Templeton in Prince George county and most of Isle of Wight. This gives a good basis for targeting by opportunity for sure.

The final scatter plot shows actual vote totals versus the Active Registered Voter total per precinct. The weakest support for the Republican will be the precincts below the red line. These precincts would form a good starting point for building support for any Democratic campaign in this district.

This is analysis I can do for your campaign simply based on publicly available data. If you work with me I can help you really zero on down to address by address data once I get a hold of your voter file to analyze.

You can request a file from ELECT office by contacting Vanessa Archie at vanessa.archie@elections.virginia.gov or at (804) 864-8908. Ask what it would take to obtain the Vote History List for District 64, let her know you are a candidate or a member of the campaign.

Support the Democratic candidate and if you are a candidate or working on a campaign check out my The Solution page on this website to see how I can help your campaign.

Let's Turn Virginia Blue in 2017. If you do not have a candidate running in your district. Run, let me help!

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Virginia Public Access Project releases Visualization on Contested House of Delegates Races

Virginia Public Access Project releases Visualization on Contested House of Delegates Races