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Tilly Blanding & Kathy Tran Compete to Challenge for District 42 House of Delegates Seat - Data Snapshot

Tilly Blanding & Kathy Tran Compete to Challenge for District 42 House of Delegates Seat - Data Snapshot

District 42 is being contested by 2 Democratic candidates this cycle. The seat is currently held by Republican Dave Albo. This seat was challenged by a Democrat in the last cycle. In that last cycle Albo won by a  4,592 vote margin out of 17,082 cast. 

THE ANNOUNCED DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATES ARE TILLY BLANDING & KATHY TRAN

DISTRICT 42 FAST FACTS

  • Residents = 80,010
  • Active Registered Voters = 50,877
  • Percent Registered = 64%
  • Total Vote in Last Race = 17,082
  • Participation Rate = 34%
  • Total Vote for Republican last Race = 10,837
  • Total Vote for Democrat last Race = 6,245
  • Localities = Fairfax County

There are a total of 17 precincts in District 42 all in Fairfax County. This district is unique in all of the contested districts I have reviewed so far in that the Republican won every single precinct last cycle. It is still worth digging into the data to see where opportunities may lie in the upcoming campaign.

Here is chart showing the Partisan Vote Share by Precinct:

Just glancing at the above chart I would definitely begin looking into the precincts with a large number of people who did not vote last cycle. Newington, Laurelhill, Westgate, Fountainhead and Orange. Some of these favored the Republican heavily, but the volume of people not voting suggests opportunity in these areas.

The next chart shows the margin of victory in the various precincts.

As noted above, the Republican enjoyed an across the board victory last cycle. Not only that but he won with significant margins in almost all of the precincts. That means there is opportunity across the board. Any progress anywhere could yield very positive results in this district.

The final scatter plot simply reinforces the above findings.  The Republican won a sweeping victory across the board. Fundamentally, I would target the Republican precincts that fall below the red line and look for support from the precincts where the Democratic vote totals are above the blue line. Although, given the scope of the Republican victory any progress anywhere will pay dividends.

This is analysis I can do for your campaign simply based on publicly available data. If you work with me I can help you really zero on down to address by address data once I get a hold of your voter file to analyze.

You can request a file from ELECT office by contacting Vanessa Archie at vanessa.archie@elections.virginia.gov or at (804) 864-8908. Ask what it would take to obtain the Vote History List for District 42, let her know you are a candidate or a member of the campaign.

Support the Democratic candidate and if you are a candidate or working on a campaign check out my The Solution page on this website to see how I can help your campaign.

Let's Turn Virginia Blue in 2017. If you do not have a candidate running in your district. Run, let me help!

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