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Lizzie Drucker-Basch Runs for District 56 Virginia House of Delegates Seat - Data Snapshot

Lizzie Drucker-Basch Runs for District 56 Virginia House of Delegates Seat - Data Snapshot

District 56 is being contested by a Democratic candidate this cycle. The seat is currently held by Republican Peter Farrell. This seat was not challenged by a Democrat in the last cycle. Farrell drew 15,126 votes in that uncontested race. Farrell has decided not to seek reelection for this district. As of right now only the Democrat has formally filed to contest this seat.

THE ANNOUNCED CANDIDATE IS LIZZIE DRUCKER-BASCH:

DISTRICT 56 FAST FACTS

  • Residents = 80,010
  • Active Registered Voters = 50,546
  • Percent Registered = 63%
  • Total Vote in Last Race = 15,126
  • Participation Rate = 30%
  • Total Vote for Republican last Race = 15,126
  • Total Vote for Democrat last Race = 0
  • Localities = Goochland, Henrico, Louisa and Spotsylvania Counties

There are a total of 29 precincts in District 56. Louisa has the most precincts with 15 while Goochland has 5, Henrico 7 and Spotsylvania just 2. While Louisa has the highest count of precincts, voter registration in the Henrico County precincts appears high since they are only a few points behind Louisa on total active voter share percentage as seen in the pie chart below.

Here is the share of Active Voters by Locality:

Just judging by the pie chart it is clear the focus will be on Henrico and Louisa County precincts.

Here is chart showing the republican vote share of active voters by precinct.

This chart shows that the areas with the most opportunity, in terms of volume of people who did not vote in the last cycle, largely are the precincts in Henrico County. So while both Henrico and Louisa are very important, just given the opportunity shown in the data, I might start at least reviewing Henrico more closely.

The final scatter plot shows actual vote totals for the republican versus the Active Registered Voter total per precinct. The weakest support are found to be the precincts below the line. These precincts would form a good starting point for building support for any Democratic campaign in this district.

This is analysis I can do for your campaign simply based on publicly available data. If you work with me I can help you really zero on down to address by address data once I get a hold of your voter file to analyze.

You can request a file from ELECT office by contacting Vanessa Archie at vanessa.archie@elections.virginia.gov or at (804) 864-8908. Ask what it would take to obtain the Vote History List for District 56, let her know you are a candidate or a member of the campaign.

Support the Democratic candidate and if you are a candidate or working on a campaign check out my The Solution page on this website to see how I can help your campaign.

Let's Turn Virginia Blue in 2017. If you do not have a candidate running in your district. Run, let me help!

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