Willie Randall Runs Again in District 100 Virginia House of Delegates - Data Snapshot
District 100 is being contested by a Democratic candidate this cycle. The seat is currently held by Republican Rob Bloxom. This seat was challenged by Democrat Willie Randall in the last cycle and he has risen to the challenge again this cycle. In 2015 Bloxom won by a 2,379 vote margin out of 14,935 cast.
THE ANNOUNCED DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATE IS WILLIE RANDALL
DISTRICT 100 FAST FACTS
- Residents = 80,010
- Active Registered Voters = 44,291
- Percent Registered = 55%
- Total Vote in Last Race = 14,935
- Participation Rate = 34%
- Total Vote for Republican last Race = 8,657
- Total Vote for Democrat last Race = 6,278
- Localities = Accomack & Northampton Counties and Norfolk City
There is a total of 30 precincts in District 100. Most of the precincts are found in one locality with 17 in Accomack County, 8 in Norfolk City, and 5 in Northampton County. This might be a good district to look at some registration drives. The below data will reveal where we might want to target that sort of effort as well.
Here is the share of Active Voters by Locality:
It is clear that Accomack County is currently the largest force regionally in this district. But it is surprisingly troubled as well. That said, there is significant opportunity across the district.
Here is chart showing the Partisan Vote Share by Precinct. The letter at the beginning of the precinct names represent the locality the precinct is in, (A) Accomack County, (N) Northampton County or (NO) Norfolk City.
The above chart reveals that while Accomack covers by far the most precincts and, as a result, there are a lot of Active Voters in that locality, when you look at precinct level detail there are clearly areas with low registration totals. The Republicans win this district on the strength of registered Active Voters in the areas they are strong in, Norfolk City and Northampton County. This race is close enough that if you can get similar registration numbers in Accomack County the Democrats chances should improve considerably.
The next chart shows the margin of victory in the various precincts. This one definitely gives us some idea of the precincts that make up our battleground areas in this race.
Willie won 10 of the 30 precincts in this district last cycle. There is a good mix of localities in the precincts won column for the Democrat. While that is a good thing, the problem is the strength of the margins for the Republican. 8 of the precincts the Republican won are nearly as wide or wider than the largest Democratic win margin. That means there is work to be done for sure.
The final scatter plot reveals a very interesting race. The fact that the lines converge is an indication that the larger the Active Voter registration the better the Democrat does. Raising registration numbers would likely be a sound tactic in this area. I know it is a heavy military district and that will affect registration numbers, but there is room to grow none the less. Fundamentally, I would target the Republican precincts that fall below the red line and look for support from the precincts where the Democratic vote totals are above the blue line.
This is analysis I can do for your campaign simply based on publicly available data. If you work with me I can help you really zero on down to address by address data once I get a hold of your voter file to analyze.
You can request a file from ELECT office by contacting Vanessa Archie at firstname.lastname@example.org or at (804) 864-8908. Ask what it would take to obtain the Vote History List for District 100, let her know you are a candidate or a member of the campaign.
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Let's Turn Virginia Blue in 2017. If you do not have a candidate running in your district. Run, let me help!