Angela Lynn Battles Again for District 25 Virginia House of Delegates Seat - Data Snapshot
District 25 is being contested by a Democratic candidate this cycle. The seat is currently held by Republican Steve Landes. This seat was challenged by Democrat Angela Lynn in the last cycle and she has risen to the challenge again this cycle. In 2015 Landes won by a 5,945 vote margin out of 18,261 cast.
THE ANNOUNCED DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATE IS ANGELA LYNN
DISTRICT 25 FAST FACTS
- Residents = 80,010
- Active Registered Voters = 52,162
- Percent Registered = 65%
- Total Vote in Last Race = 18,261
- Participation Rate = 35%
- Total Vote for Republican last Race = 12,103
- Total Vote for Democrat last Race = 6,158
- Localities = Albemarle, Augusta and Rockingham Counties
There is a total of 24 precincts in District 25. It is pretty evenly divided among the localities with 7 in Albemarle County, 8 in Augusta County, and 9 in Rockingham County. This district is a good target. A 35% participation gives plenty of room to grow. While the vote margin is pretty strong given the participation rate, let's look at some data to see where opportunities may lie.
Here is the share of Active Voters by Locality:
I have done quite a few of these reviews and I do not think I have seen such an even spread across localities before. This speaks of balance in the district. Let's dive into precinct level data to see what surfaces there.
Here is chart showing the Partisan Vote Share by Precinct. The letter at the beginning of the precinct names represent the locality the precinct is in, (A) Albemarle County, (AU) Augusta County or (R) Rockingham county.
Just scanning the above chart Angela's support in the last election is based in Albemarle County, specifically in the Ivy, Crozet and Brownsville precincts. Interestingly, there appears to be a large non-voting population in those precincts as well, so it might be a smart move to focus early work in these precincts to build and expand the base of support quickly. Let's look at some other data though and see what it tells us.
The next chart shows the margin of victory in the various precincts. This one definitely gives us some idea of the precincts that make up our battleground areas in this race.
Angela won 6 of the 7 Albemarle county precincts in 2015 and only narrowly lost the 7th. This is clearly where her base currently is. The lowest margins of victory for Landes are all in Rockingham county, so this is clearly the lowest hanging fruit that makes up the battleground territory and Augusta forms his obvious base of support. You will want to work across the district of course, but this gives you an idea of how to structure a and prioritize a high quality campaign.
The final scatter plot reveals a very dynamic race. Looking to the right you can see the highest Active Voter count areas are easily won by Angela, but there is a lot of opportunity in those precincts as well. Fundamentally, I would target the Republican precincts that fall below the red line and look for support from the precincts where the Democratic vote totals are above the blue line.
This is analysis I can do for your campaign simply based on publicly available data. If you work with me I can help you really zero on down to address by address data once I get a hold of your voter file to analyze.
You can request a file from ELECT office by contacting Vanessa Archie at firstname.lastname@example.org or at (804) 864-8908. Ask what it would take to obtain the Vote History List for District 25, let her know you are a candidate or a member of the campaign.
Support the Democratic candidate and if you are a candidate or working on a campaign check out my The Solution page on this website to see how I can help your campaign.
Let's Turn Virginia Blue in 2017. If you do not have a candidate running in your district. Run, let me help!