Wendy Gooditis Steps Up in District 10 Virginia House of Delegates Race - Data Snapshot
District 10 is being contested by a Democratic candidate this cycle. The seat is currently held by Republican Randy Minchew. This seat was challenged by a Democrat in the last cycle. In that last cycle Minchew won by a 4,060 vote margin out of 16,355 cast.
THE ANNOUNCED DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATE IS WENDY GOODITIS
DISTRICT 10 FAST FACTS
- Residents = 80,010
- Active Registered Voters = 56,815
- Percent Registered = 71%
- Total Vote in Last Race = 16,770
- Participation Rate = 31%
- Total Vote for Republican last Race = 10,415
- Total Vote for Democrat last Race = 6,355
- Localities = Clarke, Frederick and Loudoun Counties
There is a total of 26 precincts in District 10. There are 2 in Clarke County, 4 in Frederick County, and 20 in Loudoun County. This district is a good target. A 31% participation gives plenty of room to grow. While the vote margin is pretty strong given the participation rate, let's look at some data to see where opportunities may lie.
Here is the share of Active Voters by Locality:
Just looking at the pie chart it is obvious most of the work to be done is in Loudoun County precincts. Let's dive in and take a look at some precinct level data.
Here is chart showing the Partisan Vote Share by Precinct. The letter at the beginning of the precinct names represent the locality the precinct is in, Clarke County, Frederick County or Loudoun county.
Carefully looking over this chart reveals that the Frederick and Clarke County areas are generally more firmly in the Republican column overall, but that there is opportunity across the board even so. The largest volume of people who did not vote per precinct do actually appear in the Loudoun County precincts, which is where this race will be won, getting people not typically engaged to chose a different direction. Of course a deeper data dive is needed.
The next chart shows the margin of victory in the various precincts. This one definitely gives us some idea of the precincts that make up our battleground areas in this race.
The 12 precincts with the worst margin for the Republican are all in Louduon County. This will be where most fo the energy of the campaign should be focused. That said, it is worth touching every corner of the district if you can.
The final scatter plot reveals a very dynamic race. The fact that the trend lines for both parties are nearly parellel suggests a strong pattern of support across the board. I would target the Republican precincts that fall below the red line and look for support from the precincts where the Democratic vote totals are above the blue line.
This is analysis I can do for your campaign simply based on publicly available data. If you work with me I can help you really zero on down to address by address data once I get a hold of your voter file to analyze.
You can request a file from ELECT office by contacting Vanessa Archie at firstname.lastname@example.org or at (804) 864-8908. Ask what it would take to obtain the Vote History List for District 10, let her know you are a candidate or a member of the campaign.
Support the Democratic candidate and if you are a candidate or working on a campaign check out my The Solution page on this website to see how I can help your campaign.
Let's Turn Virginia Blue in 2017. If you do not have a candidate running in your district. Run, let me help!