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Dawn Adams, Mary Jo Sheeley and Ben Pearson-Nelson Compete to Represent District 68 in Virginia's House of Delegates

Dawn Adams, Mary Jo Sheeley and Ben Pearson-Nelson Compete to Represent District 68 in Virginia's House of Delegates

District 68 is being contested by 3 Democratic candidates this cycle. The seat is currently held by Republican Manoli Loupassi. This seat was challenged by a Democrat and an Independent in the last cycle. In the last cycle Loupassi won by a daunting 6,298 vote margin out of 25,616 cast. 

THE ANNOUNCED CANDIDATES ARE DAWN M ADAMS MARY JO SHEELEY & BEN PEARSON-NELSON

DISTRICT 99 FAST FACTS

  • Residents = 80,010
  • Active Registered Voters = 56,766
  • Percent Registered = 71%
  • Total Vote in Last Race = 25,616
  • Participation Rate = 45%
  • Total Vote for Republican last Race = 15,715
  • Total Vote for Democrat last Race = 9,417
  • Total Vote for Independent last Race = 484
  • Localities = Chesterfield & Henrico Counties and Richmond City

There is a total of 26 precincts in District 68. There are 10 in Chesterfield County, 3 in Henrico County, and 13 in Richmond City. This district will be tough. While 45% participation seems low, it is remarkable high for off-year elections like these. That vote margin also proves a little daunting as well. All that said, let's look at some data to see where opportunities may lie.

Here is the share of Active Voters by Locality:

Just looking at the pie chart it is not obvious where you would want to begin, so let's turn our attention to by precinct information.

Here is chart showing the Partisan Vote Share by Precinct. The letter at the beginning of the precinct names represent the locality the precinct is in, Chesterfield County, Henrico County or Richmond City

Carefully looking over this chart reveals particularly strong support in Chesterfield County for the Republican and actually decent support for the Republican even in Richmond City. This will be a tough nut to crack, but this chart tells me the approach may be counter intuitive to some. The largest volume of people who did not vote actually appear in the Chesterfield County precincts, so while some of the Republican top vote totals come from there, the volume of people not voting is higher too, which is where this race will be won, getting people not typically engaged to chose a different direction. Of course a deeper data dive is needed.

The next chart shows the margin of victory in the various precincts. This one definitely gives us some idea of the precincts that make up our battleground areas in this race.

This margin data actually shows there is actually a mix of closely contested precincts across the localities. All 3 precincts from Henrico County fall within the 11 precincts decided by around 200 votes or less. 6 from Richmond City and 3 even from Chesterfield County.

The final scatter plot reveals a very dynamic race. I would target the Republican precincts that fall below the red line and look for support from the precincts where the Democratic vote totals are above the blue line.

This is analysis I can do for your campaign simply based on publicly available data. If you work with me I can help you really zero on down to address by address data once I get a hold of your voter file to analyze.

You can request a file from ELECT office by contacting Vanessa Archie at vanessa.archie@elections.virginia.gov or at (804) 864-8908. Ask what it would take to obtain the Vote History List for District 68, let her know you are a candidate or a member of the campaign.

Support the Democratic candidate and if you are a candidate or working on a campaign check out my The Solution page on this website to see how I can help your campaign.

Let's Turn Virginia Blue in 2017. If you do not have a candidate running in your district. Run, let me help!

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