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Tom Brock and Kelly Fowler for Virginia House of Delegates District 21 - Data Points

Tom Brock and Kelly Fowler for Virginia House of Delegates District 21 - Data Points

District 21 is being contested by 2 Democratic candidates this cycle. The seat is currently held by Republican Ron Villanueva. This seat was challenged by a Democrat in the last cycle, however, the 2 declared Democrats appear to be first-time candidates. Villanueva won this seat by a margin of 1,533 votes out of only 11,157 cast.

The 2 announced candidates are Tom Brock and Kelly Fowler:

District 21 Fast Facts

  • Residents = 80,010
  • Active Registered Voters = 50,755
  • Percent Registered = 63%
  • Total Vote in Last District 21 Race = 17,793
  • Participation Rate = 22%
  • Total Vote for Republican last Race = 6,345
  • Total Vote for Democrat last Race = 4,812
  • Localities = Chesapeake City and Virginia Beach City

The precinct count is a little furry, I am relying on two public sources to create the data and they do not match. My best guess is there are 3 Chesapeake City precincts and 15 Virginia Beach City precincts but don't hold me to that.In any case, this district is clearly centered in Virginia Beach City.

Here is the partisan vote share of Active Voters:

This race is really wide open frankly. 22% participation is pretty bad, so there is a lot of opportunities. Villanueva has happened to draw a primary challenger on the Republican side. A very dynamic season for Virginia Beach.

Here is a plot of the Republican vote totals in the precincts. Frankly, these are soft numbers across the board. That said, the dots below the line would be precincts to seriously review first, that means they underperform the average performance for the Republican last race:

The next scatter plot is the Democratic vote in the precincts in the last cycle compared to total Active Voters. Again, this is incredibly weak performance across the board. The dots above the line might be worked early by the campaign to secure volunteers and donations with a long-term plan to reach out to districts that fall under the line.

This is just a quick snapshot on some of the analysis I can do for your campaign simply based on publically available data. If you work with me I can help you really zero on down to address by address data once I get a hold of your voter file to analyze.

You can request a file from the Secretary of States office by contacting Vanessa Archie at vanessa.archie@elections.virginia.gov or at (804) 864-8908. Ask what it would take to obtain the Vote History List for District 21, let her know you are a candidate or a member of the campaign.

Support the Democratic candidate and if you are a candidate or working on a campaign check out my The Solution page on this website to see how I can help your campaign.

Let's Turn Virginia Blue in 2017. If you do not have a candidate running in your district. Run, let me help!

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