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Schuyler VanValkenburg running for now OPEN Virginia House of Delegates District 72 - some data

Schuyler VanValkenburg running for now OPEN Virginia House of Delegates District 72 - some data

District 72 is being contested by Democratic candidate Schuyler VanValkenburg. Schuyler will compete for the seat currently held by Jimmie Massie. This seat has not been contested by anyone since Massie first won in 2007, no Democrat for a decade. Massie announced March 18th that he will not run for this seat in the fall. Now an open seat, even in a red district, makes this a winnable district in every way, let's take a look at the numbers.

Schuyler links:

District 72 Fast Facts

  • Residents = 80,010
  • Active Registered Voters = 51,466
  • Percent Registered = 64%
  • Total Vote in Last District 72 Race = 13,644
  • Participation Rate = 27%
  • Total Vote for Republican last Race = 13,644
  • Total Vote for Democrat last Race = 0
  • Localities = Henrico County

There are 28 rather gerrymandered precincts in Henrico County, There are 15 precincts that perform worse than the 27% participation rate across the district. Of those 7 precincts have more than 2,000 Active Voters. 2 of those have more than 3,000 Active Voters; Coalpit and Dumbarton. That is where I would look first for sure

Below is a general summary of the vote share the Republican had out of the Active Voters in District 72:

At a 27% participation rate overall opportunities abound. Dumbarton and Hermitage precincts are prime targets as they have a lot of Active Voters with low support for the republicans. That said, there are opporunities in areas that drew even the most votes for the Republican like Stoney Run and Glenn Allen given the sheer volume of people that did not vote in that last cycle. Those precincts with low turnout, even for the district, would draw my gaze first. It will take some work, but Schuyler has taken the most difficult step, now we need to help him out. 

Here is a plot of the precincts. The dots above the line would be precincts to seriously review first:

This is just a quick snapshot on some of the analysis I can do for your campaign simply based on publicly available data. If you work with me I can help you really zero on down to address by address data once I get a hold of your voter file to analyze.

You can request a file from the Secretary of States office by contacting Vanessa Archie at vanessa.archie@elections.virginia.gov or at (804) 864-8908. Ask what it would take to obtain the Vote History List for District 72, let her know you are a candidate or a member of the campaign.

Support the Democratic candidate and if you are a candidate or working on a campaign check out my The Solution page on this website to see how I can help your campaign.

Let's Turn Virginia Blue in 2017. If you do not have a candidate running in your district. Run, let me help!

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