District 81 - Primary Target Precinct Assessment

The following assessment will provide more detailed information about precincts in the 81st district. This data is based on the publicly available data from the 2016 Presidential Primary. It is a useful data point as it is a recent and hotly contested campaign on both sides of the aisle.

DATA ORGANIZATION

Below you will find a series of graphics highlighting different aspects of that 2016 Primary. Looking at this will help you understand your district better. Each graphic is designed to give you a sense of Democratic strength regarding the data considered in that graphic. Precincts where that data point favors your campaign will be found on the left hand side of the graphic with the least favorable on the right side.

This page ends with a table where I rank a variety of data points and add them together to create an aggregate score. That table is sorted in the priority order I recommend you target these precincts in the final 5 weeks of this campaign. Let's turn to the data:

2016 Primary Vote Turnout by Precinct

This chart is organized by margin between parties. The left side is where we enjoyed the largest margin in terms of total engagement. Republicans outperformed us in almost every precinct. Fortunately, we do not need to worry about them for the primary. It is just one factor to consider when scoring these precincts.

2016 Partisan Primary Turnout Margins

This represents relative partisan strength. For a primary looking at where we are strongest versus Republicans is important, it helps us understand the makeup of the precinct better. Again this is just a factor to consider.

2016 Participation Rate in Democratic Primary

This data is more relevant. The greater the percent of people that chose our ballot in the 2016 means we are likelier to be able to persuade people in that precinct to turnout again this year. Primary is all about turning out those Democratic voters for you!

2016 Primary Clinton v Sanders

I might be making a bit of an assumption here, but it seems like you spring out of the Sanders wing of the party. Given that, knowing where Sanders got the strongest support could prove important to your primary chances.

My Recommended Precinct Priorities

Given that we saw 5,289 total Democratic votes cast in last years primary I am going to say you want to target about 2,000 votes for the primary, 2,500 to be safe. If you work the precincts in the sequence I recommend below I think you will find your best avenue to victory. Let me post the table first and then I will describe each category below. The important thing to note is that what I identify as the top priority based on the public data available to me is found top of the list. The lower the target score (the column on the far right) the better.

I provide the rankings for each category in case you would like to place more emphasis on one factor over another. Here are some definitions of the columns in the table above from left to right.

Difference Rank:  This is partisan difference in total turnout between the two parties in each precinct. A rank of 1 is the best performing precinct for Democrats.

Total Dem Votes Rank: This column is simply the rank of total Democrats that voted in last years primary. A rank of 1 is the precinct with the most Democrats that turned up.

Dem Primary Rate Rank: This column is the percent of active voters that cast a ballot for Democrats last year in the primary. It is important to consider this rate because it could signal intensity or relationships in the area that drives Dem turnout. If 50% of one precinct turns out, it is worth working that area even if it has a smaller total of voters.

Active Voter Rank: This column just ranks precinct size in terms of total active voters. Bells Mill is the largest precinct with 3,875 Active Voters registered and Grassfield is the smallest at 589 Active Voters.

Sanders Vote Rank: As I noted above considering the Sanders data is important since they are likely your most natural allies. Depending on how strongly you feel this is important I could modify the Target Score to weight this more. Right now the strongest Sanders support scores 7th when factoring in all categories.

Target Score: This is simply the sum of each of the categories detailed above. The lower the score the better. The table is sorted top to bottom with the best target at the top and the worst at the bottom.

Please let me know if you have any questions. braden@fullslateconstulting or 503.449.0990

Thanks so much!