This data is from last year’s presidential primary. It is the most recent primary and it was a particularly engaged primary on both sides of the aisle, so while I do not typically like comparing Presidential data with other races because the dynamics are so different, when looking for potential areas to prioritize for working the primary this cycle I think this would give you an edge in targeting your work these remaining 6 weeks.
The following charts are organized so the most favorable precinct for the category being removed is on the left to the least favorable as you move to the right. By the end of this private page for you two is a table that aggregates each of these following charts into a scoring system where I list precincts by what I would recommend would be your priorities to yield best ROI.
First let us take a look overall primary results:
This chart confirms a bit of what we talked about yesterday, Bethel, Antietam and particularly Kerrydale form the area that drew the most Democratic votes in the primary last year. That alone makes them good targets to work in this primary cycle.
The above chart reveals areas that had stronger Democratic support than Republican vote. Three of these are precincts that performed well in terms of total Democratic vote in the prior chart (Kerrydale, Antietam and Bethel) and others were not obvious targets.
Not a lot of conclusions to draw from this table. It is just one of the data points I used to build out my precinct primary target score. It does raise some concerns that Bethell and Kerrydale, while strong in the other two charts, scores low on this percent turnout rate. It does not eliminate them as targets, but is a factor to consider when setting priorities.
This chart is sorted to show the strongest precincts in total vote for Bernie. I know you want to bring the party together and work all areas of course, but, it is my sense your core base might be the Bernie core from last year so including this may be useful in knowing where to focus.
This final image is a table scoring each of the above categories and ranking precincts to target based on the lowest aggregate score being of highest priority. Ken, you as the candidate know the lay of the land in terms of local dynamics much better than I would, but this priority table should give you a good priority list to work to yield stronger results in the primary process.
The right hand column is the aggregate score from the four relevant metrics reviewed. Much like some of the aggregate data used in fantasy player rankings this captures a snapshot of factors important to your specific challenge in the primary you face.
So the above table sorts the precincts by priority based on scoring the above factors to develop a rank. Again, I would rely on your local knowledge as well, but this should facilitate decision making for your primary contest. All of this data is focused solely on primary information. The interesting factor to consider moving into the general should you win is that Marco Rubio actually won the precincts in your district in the Republican primary. It was a narrow Rubio victory, but still, this is not an area Trump rode to victory in Virginia last year during the primary.