District 31 - Primary Target Precinct Assessment

The following assessment will provide more detailed information about precincts in the 31st district. This data is based on the publicly available data from the 2016 Presidential Primary. It is a useful data point as it is a recent and hotly contested campaign on both sides of the aisle.

DATA ORGANIZATION

Below you will find a series of graphics highlighting different aspects of that 2016 Primary. Looking at this will help you understand your district better. Each graphic is designed to give you a sense of Democratic strength regarding the data considered in that graphic. Precincts where that data point favors your campaign will be found on the left hand side of the graphic with the least favorable on the right side.

This page ends with a table where I rank a variety of data points and add them together to create an aggregate score. That table is sorted in the priority order I recommend you target these precincts in the final weeks of this campaign based on this data. Getting the voter files from the state will provide even better data and may or may not result in a change in priorities, but this gives you a strong place to start from. Let's turn to the data:

2016 Primary Vote Turnout by Precinct

This chart is organized by margin between parties. The left side is where we enjoyed the largest number of Democratic votes. Republicans outperformed us in almost every precinct. Fortunately, we do not need to worry about them for the primary. It is just one factor to consider when scoring these precincts.

Note: The available data shows no republican votes for King precinct. This is unlikely, but publicly available data often has missing elements like this for some reason.

2016 Partisan Primary Turnout Margins

This represents relative partisan strength. For a primary looking at where we are strongest versus Republicans is important, it helps us understand the makeup of the precinct better. Again this is just one factor to consider though. Compared to the other districts I have looked at, the 10 precincts that had more Democratic votes is a sign of more support than in other districts. That bodes well moving into the fall.

2016 Participation Rate in Democratic Primary

This data is more relevant. The greater the percent of people that chose our ballot in the 2016 means we are likelier to be able to persuade people in that precinct to turnout again this year. Primary is all about turning out those Democratic voters for you!

2016 Trump Vote as % of Total Republican Vote

This data will be more useful come general election time, but can have some utility when scoring areas to target for a primary as well. Weakness in Trump support in the primary last year even among those that voted could yield voters willing to turn out for a Democrat this time around. I would not put a lot of focus on this, but it is something to consider when developing strategy.

2016 Primary Clinton v Sanders

Factoring in the Sanders strength in your district can also serve as another interesting data point since a lot of the Sanders support showed up more as an activist movement. Clinton handily won in this district so I would not change approach or messaging to specifically appeal to Sanders voters, but understanding this dynamic might help you reach potential volunteers in particular. That said, the resistance to Trump is bringing all sorts of people out of the woodwork, which is a good thing. This graph is organized by vote total, with the precincts with most Sanders voters on the left to the least on the right.

My Recommended Precinct Priorities

This recommendation is meant to supplement your existing knowledge of this district. Trust your instincts if something here does not jive. On the ground knowledge is also a key to success. This hopefully will serve to help inform your decision making and give you a different perspective to view things.

Given that we saw 9,779 total Democratic votes were cast in last years primary (more than in the HoD general election race in 2015) it is hard to gauge what your turnout might be like for the primary this year. 5,000 total primary votes is probably high, but targeting 2,501 votes to get 50% +1 of the vote out for you would be reasonable. If you work the precincts in the sequence I recommend below I think you will find your best avenue to victory given the information on hand now. Let me post the table first and then I will describe each category below. The important thing to note is that what I identify as the top priority based on the public data available to me is found top of the list. The lower the target score (the column on the far right) the better.

I provide the rankings for each category in case you would like to place more emphasis on one factor over another. Here are some definitions of the columns in the table above from left to right.

Democratic Primary Votes Rank: This column is simply the rank of total Democrats that voted in last years primary. A rank of 1 is the precinct with the most Democrats that turned up.

Partisan Primary Strength Rank:  This is partisan difference in total turnout between the two parties in each precinct. A rank of 1 is the best performing precinct for Democrats.

Democratic Participation Rate Rank: This column is the percent of active voters that cast a ballot for Democrats last year in the primary. It is important to consider this rate because it could signal intensity or relationships in the area that drives Dem turnout. If 50% of one precinct turns out, it is worth working that area even if it has a smaller total of voters.

Weak Trump Support Rank: This column just ranks the % of vote Trump received in the Republican primary. The weaker that percentage, the weaker his zealous support.

Sanders Vote Rank: As I noted above considering the Sanders data is important since they are likely activist sorts.

Target Score: This is simply the sum of each of the categories detailed above. The lower the score the better. The table is sorted top to bottom with the best target at the top and the worst at the bottom.

* Penn and Minnieville Precincts Active Voters totals are based on estimates.

Please let me know if you have any questions. braden@fullslateconstulting or 503.449.0990